Two days after Christmas, the Atlas sky survey team detected a new rocky body within Earth’s cosmic vicinity. While Atlas routinely identifies near-Earth objects—167 in 2024 alone—this particular discovery stood out. The object, designated 2024 YR4 and measuring between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, carries a small but noteworthy chance of colliding with Earth in 2032.

Initially, its impact probability was estimated at just over 1% in January, rising to 2.3% in early February. Now, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has adjusted the odds to 3.1%, translating to a roughly 1-in-32 chance of an Earth impact.

Despite this, there are four key reasons why immediate concern may be unwarranted. First, the potential impact date is December 2032, leaving ample time for preparations. Second, although larger than the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk in 2013, 2024 YR4 is still far smaller than the 10-kilometer object that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, meaning any impact would cause regional, rather than global, destruction. Given years of advance notice, evacuation measures could be implemented.

Third, Earth’s surface is predominantly ocean, reducing the likelihood of direct harm. While more research is needed on asteroid-generated tsunamis, many experts believe a water impact from an object of this size would pose little risk to human life or infrastructure.

Finally, data on 2024 YR4 is still being refined. Impact probabilities are derived from computer models predicting its trajectory, and for an asteroid to strike Earth, it must not only intersect our planet’s orbit but also arrive at the exact point in space at the right moment.

Currently, the predicted path of 2024 YR4 includes a 3.1% chance of Earth intersection. As additional observations are gathered, astronomers will refine their calculations, reducing uncertainty. Initially, this may cause the impact probability to rise before it ultimately trends toward zero, as has occurred with other newly discovered asteroids.

While media often portrays asteroid threats as inevitable cosmic disasters, reality tells a different story. NASA has already demonstrated humanity’s ability to alter an asteroid’s path—its DART mission successfully shifted the orbit of a 150-meter asteroid moon by over 30 minutes. Though mounting a similar intervention for 2024 YR4 would be a logistical challenge given the short timeframe, it remains a testament to our growing planetary defense capabilities.

Global efforts to track near-Earth objects are ongoing. NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office and the European Space Agency’s equivalent organization work alongside governments and the UN to prepare for potential threats. Observatories worldwide—including those in Kansas, London, Ukraine, and China—have contributed to tracking 2024 YR4. The Minor Planet Center in Massachusetts coordinates these efforts, ensuring continuous monitoring and trajectory refinements.

While 2024 YR4 remains under close scrutiny, it also serves as a reminder of the broader asteroid threat. The odds of a much larger asteroid (140 meters or more) striking Earth within a human lifetime stand at approximately 1 in 350—significantly higher than the 1 in 17,000 chance of being struck by lightning. Fortunately, vigilant sky surveys continue to monitor our celestial neighborhood, providing an essential early-warning system against potential impacts.