Somalia is on the brink of a worsening hunger crisis, with one million more people expected to face crisis levels of food insecurity in the coming months due to an anticipated drought, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Tuesday.

According to Jean-Martin Bauer, director of WFP’s Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Service, the situation could deteriorate even further due to funding cuts. Somalia has already faced severe drought conditions in recent years. In 2022, the Horn of Africa experienced its driest conditions in more than four decades, following consecutive rainy season failures, which resulted in the deaths of up to 43,000 people, according to one study.

Currently, an estimated 3.4 million people in Somalia are facing acute food insecurity, classified as phase three or above in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) system. This number is projected to rise to approximately 4.4 million in the next few months. Phase three is considered a crisis level, while phase four is categorized as an emergency. The most severe level, phase five, is defined as a catastrophe or famine.

Bauer stated that below-average rainfall is expected between April and June 2025, which could lead to drought conditions following two consecutive failed rainy seasons. This will have severe consequences, particularly for children. Based on current projections, around 1.7 million children under the age of five are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition by December 2025. Among them, approximately 466,000 children are at risk of severe acute malnutrition, WFP reported.

The WFP has already been forced to scale back its assistance programmes due to funding constraints. Currently, the organization is providing aid to approximately 820,000 people in Somalia, a significant drop from the 2.2 million people it assisted during the peak period in 2022.

Bauer noted that potential funding cuts from the United States, as part of an unprecedented aid reduction under President Donald Trump, have not yet been factored into these projections. He emphasized that the overall situation in Somalia could worsen due to a combination of factors, including adverse weather conditions, funding shortages, high food prices, and ongoing conflict.