The ongoing battle for Russia’s Kursk region is emerging as a crucial factor in determining when and how President Vladimir Putin might agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Last August, Ukrainian forces shocked both Moscow and their own allies by launching a mini-invasion, seizing a portion of Kursk. However, after months of intense fighting, aided by approximately 10,000 North Korean troops, Russia has nearly regained full control of the area.

According to Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, Ukraine had hoped to use Kursk as leverage in negotiations, but that strategy has ultimately failed. "The Russians have been able to close the salient and push them out of Russian territory just before the key negotiations get underway," he told the BBC.

This retreat is more than just a symbolic or diplomatic setback—it has direct military implications. Approximately 60,000 Russian troops were deployed to Kursk to counter Ukraine’s offensive, diverting resources from Russia’s broader military push in eastern Ukraine. Now, with Ukraine’s presence in Kursk nearly eradicated, those forces will likely be redirected to intensify Russia’s offensives elsewhere, increasing pressure on Kyiv.

Ukraine’s struggles in Kursk were compounded by the temporary suspension of U.S. military and intelligence support under the Trump administration. Although both were later reinstated, the delay came at a critical moment and likely accelerated Ukraine’s retreat.

As peace talks gain momentum, Russia’s near-complete victory in Kursk may shift the balance of power at the negotiation table, strengthening Moscow’s hand and reshaping the terms of any potential ceasefire.