India is holding back on issuing medical visas to Bangladeshis, citing staff shortages, even as diplomatic ties between the two nations deteriorate. This slowdown has created an opportunity for China to strengthen its presence in Bangladesh, offering medical alternatives and investment, according to six sources familiar with the matter.
For years, India has been the go-to destination for Bangladeshis seeking affordable private healthcare, with Bengali-speaking hospital staff further cementing cross-border ties. In 2023 alone, India issued over 2 million visas to Bangladeshis, most of them for medical reasons, according to government data. However, since August, the number of daily medical visas granted has plummeted to fewer than 1,000 per day, compared to the previous 5,000 to 7,000.
The decline in visas follows a shift in Bangladesh’s political landscape. India’s long-standing ally, Sheikh Hasina, was ousted in August amid violent protests, and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus now leads the interim government. Hasina sought refuge in New Delhi, but India has yet to respond to Bangladesh’s request for her return to stand trial.
As India limits visas, China has stepped in to fill the void. The Chinese ambassador to Bangladesh, Yao Wen, recently highlighted how Bangladeshi patients traveled to China’s Yunnan province for treatment, exploring the potential for medical tourism. Additionally, China has eased access for Bangladeshi patients, with discussions underway to establish a "friendship hospital" in Dhaka.
Investment from China into Bangladesh has also surged. Since the interim government took office, Chinese companies have poured more than $230 million into Bangladesh, the highest from any single nation in that period. Yunus is scheduled to visit Beijing this month to meet with President Xi Jinping, reinforcing growing economic and diplomatic ties.
Meanwhile, India's delay in resuming normal visa services is frustrating not only the Bangladeshi government but also the general population, according to sources. Many patients who would have sought treatment in India are now turning to Thailand and China instead.
Indian officials, however, insist that staff shortages and security concerns are behind the visa slowdown. Following anti-India protests in August—where an Indian cultural center in Dhaka was attacked—New Delhi evacuated several diplomats and their families. Indian sources maintain that visa services will only return to full capacity when Bangladesh stabilizes.
The visa bottlenecks come against the backdrop of India’s multi-billion-dollar investments in Bangladesh, including rail links, Indian economic zones at key ports, and nuclear infrastructure. India’s Foreign Ministry recently acknowledged that some projects in Bangladesh had stalled, and discussions were underway to "rationalize the project portfolio."
By contrast, China is rapidly expanding its influence. A Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) delegation recently visited Beijing, signaling potential political engagement, while Yunus has expressed Bangladesh’s willingness to further open its market to China. Chinese solar giant Longi Green Energy has already committed to setting up an office and investing in manufacturing in Bangladesh.
India's first formal engagement with Yunus is expected only next month, on the sidelines of a conference in Thailand, highlighting the slow response from New Delhi.
The shift in regional power dynamics is unmistakable. China is positioning itself as a dominant force in South Asia, challenging India’s traditional sphere of influence. Happymon Jacob, an international relations expert at Jawaharlal Nehru University, put it bluntly:
"South Asia is undergoing a strategic shift, where China is becoming one of the biggest players. The primacy that India once enjoyed is now being questioned."