Ukrainian troops in Kursk have ceded some territory in recent days but are not surrounded by Russian forces, contrary to assertions made by U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to three U.S. and European officials familiar with intelligence assessments.
U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, have relayed this assessment to the White House over the past week, a U.S. official and another source confirmed. Despite this, Trump has continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are completely encircled in the Kursk region of western Russia.
Intelligence reports from both U.S. and European agencies indicate that while Ukrainian troops are under significant pressure from Russian advances, they remain operational and have not been fully cut off.
Trump has expressed a desire for a swift resolution to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, experts suggest that Putin’s March 13 claim—that Ukrainian forces in Kursk were surrounded and would be forced to “surrender or die”—was likely misinformation aimed at positioning Russia favorably in ceasefire negotiations by portraying its actions as offering Ukrainian troops a way out.
On March 14, Trump stated on social media that he had urged Putin to spare the lives of thousands of Ukrainians he believed to be trapped. Putin, in response, reportedly agreed—on the condition that they surrender. Trump reiterated this claim during a speech at Washington’s Kennedy Center and again in a Fox News interview.
When approached for comment, the U.S. National Security Council did not directly address the intelligence reports but pointed to a joint statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz. The statement highlighted Trump’s recent conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, where both leaders agreed to continue intelligence-sharing on the situation in Kursk. The White House, CIA, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence all declined to comment.
Zelenskiy has refuted claims that Ukrainian forces are encircled, calling Putin’s statement a distortion of battlefield realities. However, he acknowledged that his troops are facing a difficult situation in Kursk, with Russian forces continuing aggressive offensives to push them out of the region.
Since launching an incursion into western Russia’s Kursk region in August, Ukrainian forces have steadily lost ground. At their peak, they controlled nearly 500 square miles of territory but now hold only 20 to 30 square miles, according to open-source reports.
During a conversation with Putin on Tuesday, Trump was informed that Russia would pause attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days—a move falling short of the full 30-day ceasefire Trump has advocated for and which Zelenskiy has indicated Ukraine would consider.
Analysts suggest that both Trump and Putin are strategically positioning themselves ahead of potential negotiations. "Putin is trying to reinforce the idea that Russia is winning and that resistance is futile, which aligns with Trump’s rhetoric," said Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Despite Russia’s gradual gains in Kursk, both intelligence officials and independent conflict monitors have cast doubt on Putin’s encirclement claim. The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank, reported on March 14 that it found no geolocated evidence supporting the assertion that Russian forces had trapped a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Kursk or anywhere else along the front lines in Ukraine.