Every month, when Blair Isbell receives her food assistance, she carefully strategizes how to stretch the roughly $7 per person per day allocated to her family. A community college student and mother of two in California’s Central Valley, Isbell meticulously scours grocery store apps to hunt for the best bargains. She relies on affordable staples like rice and pasta, making every bit of meat and vegetables last as long as possible for her sons, ages 4 and 8.

Without the support from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), Isbell says she would have no choice but to abandon her dream of becoming an occupational therapist. "I wouldn’t be able to stay in school," she admitted. "And honestly, I have no idea how I’d even make ends meet."

SNAP, which helped feed 41.7 million Americans last year, and Medicaid, the federal health program covering 72 million low-income and disabled individuals, are now in the crosshairs of potential funding cuts as lawmakers in Congress draft a new budget. A Republican proposal passed by the House in February aims to slash taxes by $4.5 trillion over the next decade, balancing some of that lost revenue with $1.5 trillion in spending reductions. While the final details remain uncertain, these cuts would likely hit hard in the Central Valley, a region known both for its agricultural output and its high poverty levels.

That reality places Republican Congressman David Valadao in a politically precarious position. His district is considered one of the most competitive in the country and a top target for Democrats in the 2026 elections. As Republicans attempt to trim the federal budget, they risk alienating working-class voters whose support they need to maintain control of Congress.

More than half of Valadao’s constituents depend on Medicaid (or Medi-Cal, as it’s called in California), while 28% receive SNAP benefits—one of the highest rates in the nation, according to Census data analyzed by Reuters. In February, Valadao voted in favor of the proposed budget cuts but soon afterward urged his colleagues to ensure the final bill "strengthens critical programs like Medicaid and SNAP." His office has not responded to media inquiries regarding his stance.

Hailing from a family of dairy farmers, Valadao has long been known as one of the more moderate Republicans in the House. Since his election in 2012, he has focused on practical issues like water infrastructure and immigration reform—key concerns for the region’s agricultural workforce—while steering clear of divisive cultural debates. Notably, he was one of only ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump after the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, and one of just two still in office.

Despite his efforts to balance party loyalty with the needs of his constituents, Valadao has faced protests outside his Bakersfield office, particularly over proposed cuts to Medicaid. "If he votes to cut Medi-Cal, it’s going to cost him at the ballot box," warned Sandy Reding, a registered nurse and president of the California Nurses Association. "People will remember if he takes away their health care."

Safety Net Programs Under Threat

Former President Trump has ruled out cuts to Social Security and Medicare—major programs serving retirees—but has advocated for increased defense and border security spending. That leaves lawmakers looking elsewhere for budget reductions. Although the House’s proposal does not explicitly target Medicaid, the Congressional Budget Office indicates that reaching the Republican goal of $880 billion in spending cuts would almost certainly require reductions to the program. Similarly, a proposed $230 billion cut to agricultural spending would likely impact SNAP, which is the largest program within the Department of Agriculture.

Congress is still far from finalizing a budget deal, as the Senate must craft its own version before negotiations proceed. Republican leaders have downplayed the likelihood of severe benefit reductions, suggesting that cost savings will come from cracking down on fraud and better targeting aid to those who need it most.

However, in Valadao’s district, the potential impact of Medicaid cuts is already raising alarms. Jason Wells, president of Adventist Health’s Central California Network, warns that several hospitals and clinics in the area are at risk of closing if funding is slashed. Raul Ayala, a regional medical director, called the proposed cuts "catastrophic" for an already struggling rural healthcare system. Schools could also see disruptions in essential services, including childhood immunization programs.

At Pioneer School in Delano, school nurse Linda Hinojosa runs a vision clinic for children, ensuring students who need glasses receive them. Medicaid funding enables the program to function, but without it, children who fail vision screenings might have no alternative but to struggle through class. "If you can’t see, you can’t learn," Hinojosa said. "Losing Medicaid funding for these services would be devastating."

As the budget debate rages on, Valadao faces mounting pressure from both his party and his constituents. His challenge will be navigating a political landscape where any decision on safety-net programs could define his reelection prospects.c