Voters across several regions of England head to the polls on Thursday to select new MPs, mayors, and councillors in local elections widely anticipated to benefit the right-wing populist Reform UK party — potentially shaking up Britain’s political order and delivering setbacks to both Labour and the Conservatives.

Both major parties — the governing Labour Party and the opposition Conservatives — have been careful to temper expectations, aware that local elections often serve as a vehicle for voter discontent with those in power, whether current or recently ousted. This dynamic is especially sharp following Labour’s ascent to government in July 2024

For Reform UK, a party long dismissed as a narrow anti-immigration faction, these elections present an opportunity to expand grassroots influence and solidify its reputation as a formidable challenger to the political establishment ahead of the next national vote, projected for 2029.

Up for grabs are 1,641 council seats, six mayoralties, and a parliamentary seat in Runcorn and Helsby, a northern England constituency left vacant after its Labour MP resigned following an assault conviction.

Betting markets tip Reform UK to capture the Runcorn seat and possibly three of the mayoral contests, while political analysts forecast the party could claim around 25% of council seats. Results will begin trickling in early Friday and continue throughout the day.

“These elections are always a rough battleground for sitting governments,” a Labour spokesperson acknowledged. “But we’re contesting every vote.”

Meanwhile, the Conservatives, under newly appointed leader Kemi Badenoch, are still reeling from last year’s historic general election loss to Labour — and may feel local losses more sharply, given their strong 2021 base.

Labour’s popularity has waned since taking office, dented by unpopular moves such as curbing winter fuel allowances for pensioners, sparking controversy over donations, and rolling out sweeping welfare cuts.

Nigel Farage, Reform’s outspoken leader, claims his party is making deep inroads into Labour heartlands while dismissing the Conservatives as “rudderless” and predicting they will “collapse entirely” in the wake of these local polls.