Asian Currencies Gain Favor as Dollar Stays on the Back Foot

Asian Currencies Gain Favor as Dollar Stays on the Back Foot

Investor optimism toward Asian currencies surged, according to a Reuters survey released Thursday, as persistent concerns over U.S. trade policies under President Donald Trump continued to weigh down the dollar.

Analysts boosted their bullish wagers on the Singapore dollar, Indian rupee, Thai baht, and Philippine peso, based on a biweekly poll of 10 participants.

April marked the dollar’s weakest monthly showing in two and a half years, as escalating tariff disputes fueled global slowdown fears and eroded faith in U.S. assets. Still, the greenback recently found some footing as trade talks, particularly with China, showed tentative signs of progress.

“With risk appetite firming on early signs of a thaw in U.S.-China tensions and Washington’s watchful eye on U.S. Treasury yields helping calm bond markets, Asian currencies are getting tactical support,” said Parisha Saimbi, EM Asia FXLM strategist at BNP Paribas.

Bullish positions on the Philippine peso, which rallied 2.6% in April, reached their highest since September. Barclays analysts noted the country remains relatively shielded from tariff shocks, a key part of the positive market narrative. While the Philippines has been swept into the broader global trade storm triggered by Trump’s tariffs, it faces a relatively moderate 17% levy burden compared to its Southeast Asian peers.

Analysts also eased back on their bearish calls against the Chinese yuan and Indonesian rupiah, though sentiment on the rupiah remained broadly negative. The rupiah has been under pressure since March amid fiscal worries and policy uncertainty. A sharp plunge to record lows in early April spurred Bank Indonesia to intervene in offshore currency markets, and the central bank held policy rates steady last week in an effort to stabilize the rupiah.

Saimbi noted the rupiah could still play catch-up with regional peers. “Valuations are now attractive for a tactical long position on the rupiah, and if risk sentiment improves, we may see some portfolio inflows,” she added.

The Reuters poll gauges analyst and fund manager views on nine key Asian emerging market currencies — including the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht — using a scale from -3 to +3 to reflect net long or short positions. A score of +3 signals a strongly long position on the U.S. dollar, and the figures incorporate positions held via non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

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