Oil prices tumbled more than a dollar per barrel on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would accelerate its production increases, intensifying worries about a looming surplus amid shaky global demand. Brent crude slid by $1.06, or 1.7%, to $60.23 per barrel by early afternoon U.S. time, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.20, or 2.02%, to $57.11.

This latest slide added to last week’s steep losses, when Brent fell 8.3% and WTI dropped 7.5%, largely on the back of rising output concerns. Saudi Arabia’s signals that it could comfortably handle a prolonged period of lower prices only deepened bearish sentiment, even as some investors had hoped for renewed U.S.-China tariff talks to buoy demand, noted Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.

OPEC+ — the alliance of OPEC members and non-OPEC partners like Russia — agreed over the weekend to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, marking a second consecutive month of accelerated hikes. Together, the planned increases for April, May, and June will total 960,000 bpd, amounting to a 44% reversal of the 2.2 million bpd of cuts set in motion since 2022, Reuters calculations show.

Analysts are warning that global producers outside the OPEC+ bloc, which now account for nearly 60% of global oil supply, may have reached the peak of their market share if the fresh barrels entering the market push prices further downward. Peter McNally from Third Bridge highlighted that these moves could reshape competitive dynamics in the oil market.

Sources inside OPEC+ revealed that Saudi Arabia is pushing the group to speed up the rollback of previous cuts as a way to pressure underperforming members like Iraq and Kazakhstan, who have been exceeding their production quotas. According to Hansen, Saudi Arabia’s strategy is as much about disciplining these partners as it is about competing with U.S. shale producers.

The production surge has prompted banks to slash their price forecasts. Barclays cut its Brent price outlook by $4 to $66 per barrel for 2025 and by $2 to $60 for 2026, while ING trimmed its 2025 estimate to $65 from $70. Additional downward pressure is coming from fears of rising global inventories and weakening demand, exacerbated by the effects of recent Trump-era tariffs. According to Vortexa’s David Wech, roughly 150 million barrels have accumulated in global storage since mid-February, underscoring the mounting oversupply challenge facing the market.