Ukraine is seriously evaluating the possibility of shifting its currency reference from the U.S. dollar to the euro, in a move that signals the country’s deeper alignment with the European Union and a reassessment of its global economic strategy. The announcement was made by the Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Andriy Pyshnyi, who said the central bank is exploring the transition as part of a broader realignment of Ukraine’s geopolitical and economic priorities.
Since 1996, the Ukrainian hryvnia has traditionally been pegged to the U.S. dollar. Even after the adoption of a managed exchange-rate regime in 2023, the dollar remained the primary reference currency. However, increasing defense cooperation with European countries, as well as Ukraine’s ambition to join the European Union, are driving authorities to consider a shift toward the euro.
According to Governor Pyshnyi, the evaluation is taking place against the backdrop of a changing global trade landscape, the fragmentation of international financial systems, and volatile geopolitical developments. He emphasized that the transition from the dollar to the euro as a reference currency is not a simple switch, but rather a complex process that requires careful planning and systemic preparation.
One of the main drivers of this move is Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership. Accession talks between Ukraine and the European Union officially began in 2024, with a potential full membership targeted by 2030. Neighboring Moldova, which began its own accession process around the same time, has already transitioned its currency reference to the euro, setting a potential model for Ukraine to follow.
Concerns about U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump have also contributed to this consideration. The temporary suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine and the imposition of tariffs have prompted Ukrainian policymakers to seek a more stable and predictable economic alignment with European partners. Analysts argue that isolationist U.S. policies could trigger wider global de-dollarization, encouraging other countries to diversify their currency reserves and trade relationships.
Recent trends in Ukraine’s foreign exchange activity show a gradual reduction in the dominance of the U.S. dollar. In 2024, the share of dollar-based transactions fell to 74.1 percent from 78.7 percent in 2023. Meanwhile, euro transactions increased to 25.15 percent from 20.8 percent, reflecting growing commercial and financial ties with the Eurozone. There was also a noticeable rise in the use of other European currencies, such as the Polish zloty and the British pound, likely driven by labor migration and cross-border business.
Ukraine’s economic outlook for 2025 is cautiously optimistic. The country’s GDP is expected to grow between 3.7 percent and 4.9 percent, depending on security developments and the continuity of international financial support. Inflation is projected to moderate around 8 percent, and the hryvnia is forecasted to average 45 to the U.S. dollar, in line with the state budget. Notably, the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves have reached a record high of \$44 billion, providing a financial cushion to support exchange rate stability during potential transitions.
If implemented, switching the hryvnia’s reference currency to the euro would mark a significant economic and symbolic shift, aligning Ukraine more firmly with European financial frameworks. Such a change could enhance currency stability, improve trade relations with the EU, and reflect the country’s geopolitical realignment. However, experts caution that any such move must be meticulously managed to avoid market disruptions and ensure policy continuity.
The coming months will likely see intensified debate and analysis within Ukraine’s economic leadership as the nation positions itself strategically for future integration with Europe and adapts to a rapidly evolving global order.