Washington: A newly released global health impact study has raised grave concerns over the drastic reduction in U.S. foreign aid, warning that sweeping cuts to the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) could lead to more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4.5 million children under the age of five. Published in The Lancet, the study outlines a devastating scenario if USAID’s core funding is not restored.
The analysis comes in response to recent moves by the U.S. administration to downsize USAID operations, shifting many of its responsibilities to the State Department. If the current 83% reduction in USAID programming continues, the researchers estimate that an average of 1.8 to 2.5 million excess deaths could occur each year between 2025 and 2030, mostly in the world's most vulnerable regions.
For decades, USAID has been a critical player in global health, credited with saving an estimated 91 million lives through interventions in maternal-child health, vaccinations, malaria control, HIV treatment, and nutrition programs. However, the rollback of funding could erase years of progress, plunging low- and middle-income countries back into high mortality scenarios similar to those seen in past pandemics or war zones.
“The consequences of cutting aid of this scale are not hypothetical they are measurable and deadly,” said the lead authors of the study. “We are on the brink of undoing decades of progress in global health.”
The study was prompted by USAID’s proposed budget for the fiscal year, which signals a dramatic realignment of priorities, favoring domestic security over international humanitarian aid. With nearly $61 billion in foreign assistance allocated last year more than half of which came through USAID the agency has long served as the largest bilateral donor in the world.
Now, with reduced funding and the real threat of the agency’s dissolution, health systems in dozens of countries face the collapse of vaccination drives, HIV treatments, clean water programs, and nutrition initiatives.
Particularly hard-hit will be children and mothers. The report estimates that 4.5 million children under five could die prematurely due to the breakdown of pediatric health services. Maternal mortality is also expected to rise, as programs supporting safe childbirth and prenatal care are withdrawn.
“Children will die from preventable diseases like malaria, pneumonia, and diarrhea not because we lack the science or solutions, but because we’re abandoning them,” said Dr. Grace Nyong’o, a pediatrician working with a USAID-funded hospital in Kenya.
The findings have triggered concern among international health leaders and former U.S. presidents. Barack Obama and George W. Bush both known for their bipartisan support of global health programs have spoken out against the proposed cuts. Faith leaders, development experts, and Nobel Peace Prize laureates have joined in urging the U.S. Congress to reconsider.
Adding to the pressure, the United States has declined to participate in a high-level donor conference organized by the United Nations in Seville, Spain this week, where over 40 nations gathered to reaffirm commitments to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Observers warn that America’s absence sends a troubling signal at a time of rising global humanitarian needs.
The report’s release underscores the urgent need for a course correction. It argues that investing in global health is not only a moral obligation but also a strategic imperative for long-term global stability. “Diseases know no borders,” the authors caution. “Neglecting global health today invites future crises that could spread and impact everyone.”
As global stakeholders wait for Washington’s next move, health experts emphasize that the stakes are measured not just in dollars, but in millions of lives. The decision to maintain or restore USAID’s leadership could determine whether humanity advances toward a safer, healthier future or falls back into widespread suffering and preventable loss.