A new wave of global trade enforcement is taking shape as transshipment—a once-obscure logistics tactic—is rapidly becoming a flashpoint in international commerce. In light of the United States’ evolving tariff regime, especially under former President Donald Trump’s proposed country-specific tariffs, governments and businesses are being pushed to rethink supply chain transparency and rules of origin compliance.
The latest developments stem from Washington’s aggressive tariff plans targeting Chinese goods, which are encouraging exporters to reroute products through intermediary countries like Vietnam, Mexico, and Malaysia. These redirections, often designed to avoid higher import duties by masking the true origin of goods, are now prompting widespread concern over trade integrity and fair competition.
In response to these concerns, the U.S. and Vietnam reached a preliminary agreement earlier this month to impose a 40% tariff on goods suspected of being transshipped, reducing a previously threatened blanket tariff of 46%. The deal also places a 20% duty on other imports from Vietnam and paves the way for enhanced inspections and origin certification enforcement.
Vietnam, facing mounting pressure from Washington, has unveiled new penalties aimed at deterring origin fraud. These include stricter oversight on manufacturing records, random audits, and sector-wide investigations—especially in electronics, furniture, and metal industries. However, analysts point out that ambiguity remains in defining what constitutes legitimate value addition in Vietnam versus illicit transshipment.
Experts warn that these measures are just the beginning of broader global repercussions. Rising scrutiny has already extended to other Asian economies such as Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea, where exports to the United States have surged in recent months. Data from the Brookings Institution and Nomura suggest a significant portion of this trade may be Chinese goods relabeled and reexported to bypass tariffs.
Trade lawyers also caution that the current rules of origin frameworks are complex and inconsistently enforced, making it difficult to prove fraudulent transshipment. The situation has created uncertainty for global companies, many of which now face rising compliance costs and supply chain disruptions as they navigate shifting legal standards.
Beyond trade enforcement, economists warn that a crackdown on transshipment could elevate consumer prices in the U.S., especially if the flow of cheaper goods from Asia is interrupted. Additionally, as Washington continues to negotiate similar frameworks with India and the United Kingdom, questions remain about whether these agreements can be effectively policed.
Meanwhile, China has expressed dissatisfaction over what it sees as indirect containment strategies targeting its economy. Although Beijing has not yet announced retaliatory measures, the possibility of a broader trade standoff looms.
As the rules around trade origin tighten and enforcement becomes more aggressive, transshipment is no longer a technical footnote—it is now at the heart of a major geopolitical and economic realignment. The outcome of this battle over trade routes and labeling practices could reshape the structure of global supply chains and redefine international trade norms for years to come.