New Delhi: In what many are now calling a dramatic turn in US-India relations, President Donald Trump’s second term has seen a decisive shift in tone, substance, and diplomatic style towards India. From a previously warm camaraderie between the world's two largest democracies, ties now seem mired in tension, transactional expectations, and diplomatic friction especially in the realm of defense cooperation.
A Relationship in Retreat
President Trump’s recent statements and tariff policies suggest a transactional approach, one far removed from the conventional niceties of international diplomacy. His administration continues to publicly press India to close the trade gap with the US, and defense deals are seen as a major avenue to accomplish that. However, ironically, Trump's actions might be sabotaging the very goals he claims to pursue.
Historically, the US was India’s second-largest defense partner. Under earlier administrations, military cooperation expanded from sharing maritime intelligence to advanced arms transfers. In early 2025, Trump himself announced that the US was preparing to offer India the F-35 stealth fighter jets, a landmark deal that could have reshaped India’s airpower and deepened strategic trust.
Yet, since the announcement of successive 25% tariffs now totalling 50% on Indian exports, that trust is rapidly eroding. The Indian government, in a parliamentary reply, clarified that there had been “no formal discussions” on the F-35 deal. For New Delhi, the message seems clear: the price of American technology might also come with a political cost too high to bear.
Mixed Signals and Strategic Setbacks
Trump’s decisions, however, aren’t just about economics. At a time when India is being penalised for continuing oil imports from Russia, Washington has paradoxically taken steps to warm up ties with Islamabad and Beijing two of India’s most complex regional adversaries.
This includes public declarations by both Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of a new US-Pakistan oil exploration partnership, coinciding with Trump’s claim that he played a mediating role in defusing Indo-Pak border tensions a claim categorically denied by India. Simultaneously, Washington slashed Pakistan's reciprocal tariffs to 19%, in sharp contrast to India's 50%.
India’s Growing Alarm
Such geopolitical triangulation is unsettling for Indian policymakers. Trump’s overtures to Beijing including a 90-day pause on further US-China tariff escalation and a revived rare earth supply deal signal a potential recalibration of Washington’s Asia policy. This is particularly troubling for New Delhi, which has leaned heavily on its strategic alignment with the US to counterbalance China’s regional assertiveness.
Trump's derogatory remarks labeling India’s economic model as “dead” and its trade policies as “obnoxious” have only made matters worse. These barbs have found rare unity among India’s otherwise divided political spectrum, sparking broad-based criticism of Washington’s hostile posturing.
Defense Cooperation in Doubt
The cornerstone of any defense deal particularly one involving high-tech platforms like the F-35 is long-term reliability. Spare parts, software updates, maintenance all depend on mutual trust. India now fears that a country willing to impose abrupt economic penalties could just as easily cut off essential supplies in the future. These concerns extend beyond fighter jets and impact the overall defense procurement ecosystem.
The US has already slipped to third place among India’s defense partners, trailing Russia and France. This is despite India’s growing hunger for military modernization. Trump’s policies may ultimately drive India further toward European and Israeli manufacturers, even if those come with other diplomatic and financial complexities.
An Opportunity Squandered?
Ironically, at a time when India is actively diversifying away from Russian defense platforms due to geopolitical pressures, Trump’s erratic moves could push New Delhi right back toward Moscow or alternative partners. Rather than capitalising on India’s shifting preferences, Washington’s actions may have squandered a rare strategic opportunity.
If Trump’s second term was meant to deepen India-US ties through hardnosed realism and economic pragmatism, the result so far has been a muddled and contradictory policy that risks alienating a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific. For now, Trump’s approach seems less about building trust and more about issuing ultimatums a method that may ultimately prove self-defeating.