Washington: Hopes of a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are fading as Iran and the United States remain divided over the conditions needed to restore normal shipping through one of the world's most important energy routes.
Iran has said the waterway will not fully reopen unless the United States agrees to several demands, including compensation for damage caused during the conflict, the lifting of sanctions and an end to military threats against Iran. Tehran has also called for the removal of the US naval blockade around the Gulf. At the same time, Iran and Oman have been working on an arrangement that would establish new shipping routes through the strait and allow vessels to move more safely.
The discussions had raised hopes in recent days that a broader understanding between Iran and the United States could soon allow shipping to return to normal. A draft arrangement involving Iran and Oman had reportedly reached an advanced stage. However, the latest developments suggest that important political disagreements remain unresolved.
The situation became more complicated after US President Donald Trump demanded that Iran pay compensation for deaths and damage that he said were linked to decades of conflict, attacks and other actions. His demand came after Iran itself made compensation one of its conditions for reopening the strait.
The two sides are therefore entering negotiations with very different expectations. Iran wants Washington to provide compensation and make major political and economic concessions before normal shipping resumes. Trump, meanwhile, is demanding that Tehran pay compensation to the United States and others. The exchange of demands has reduced expectations that a quick agreement can be reached.
The effect is already visible in shipping activity. Only six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, far below the levels seen before the conflict. The number was also lower than the recent average of about 11 vessels over a 10 day period. The sharp decline shows that shipping companies remain cautious about sending vessels through the waterway despite claims that the route is being cleared and controlled.
The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because it connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Arabian Sea. Large volumes of oil and gas normally pass through the narrow waterway every day. Any prolonged disruption can therefore affect fuel supplies, transport costs and energy prices far beyond the Middle East.
Oil markets reacted quickly to the latest uncertainty. Brent crude rose above $89 a barrel on Tuesday, while US crude moved above $83 a barrel. Prices had already climbed sharply the previous day as traders became less confident that Iran and the United States would reach an agreement soon.
The impact is not limited to oil prices. Shipping companies face higher insurance and transport costs when vessels are required to avoid dangerous waters or wait outside the strait. Energy importers in Asia are particularly sensitive to the disruption because many countries in the region depend heavily on supplies moving through the Gulf.
Oman has emerged as an important link between the two sides. Iranian and Omani officials have been discussing the details of routes that vessels could use through the strait. The proposed arrangement is intended to provide a safer and more predictable system for commercial ships. However, the technical agreement between Iran and Oman does not by itself guarantee that international shipping will return to normal.
Another difficulty is the absence of direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington. Messages have been passed through intermediaries, making the process more complicated. Each side is also trying to protect its position on sanctions, military activity, compensation and control of shipping.
For shipping companies, the key issue is not simply whether political leaders declare the strait open. They need confidence that vessels can travel through the waterway without facing attacks, sudden restrictions or conflicting instructions from different authorities.
The latest developments therefore point to a fragile situation. A technical agreement on shipping could still provide a path toward reopening the strait, but the wider political dispute between Iran and the United States remains a major obstacle.
If the two sides can separate the immediate need to restore safe commercial shipping from their larger disagreements, traffic could gradually increase. If the demands for compensation, sanctions relief and military concessions remain tied directly to reopening the waterway, the disruption could continue.
For now, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains the clearest sign of the uncertainty. With only a small number of ships using the route and oil prices rising again, markets are preparing for the possibility that the waterway will remain restricted for longer than previously expected.