Reykjavik: Icelanders will vote on Saturday on whether the country should resume accession negotiations with the European Union, with the latest opinion poll showing a narrow lead for those supporting renewed talks.
The August 29 referendum is not a vote on whether Iceland should join the European Union. It is an advisory vote on whether the country should reopen negotiations with the bloc. If negotiations later produce a membership agreement, Icelanders would have another referendum on whether to join the EU.
A Maskína poll of 1,019 people conducted from August 21 to 25 found that 51.3 percent supported restarting the talks, while 48.7 percent opposed them. The gap has narrowed from an August 13 poll, when 52.2 percent supported renewed negotiations and 47.8 percent were against them.
The result is therefore too close to predict.
The referendum comes as Iceland debates its economic future, control over its natural resources and its place in a changing European and Arctic security environment.
Iceland applied to join the European Union in 2009, following the country's financial crisis the previous year. Accession negotiations began in 2010 but were put on hold after a change of government in 2013. Iceland announced in 2015 that it did not want to continue the negotiations.
The country's EU membership application, however, was never formally withdrawn and remains legally valid.
The current government has brought the issue back to voters. Iceland's parliament approved the referendum in May after the government proposed asking voters whether the country should resume accession negotiations.
One of the most sensitive issues in the debate is fisheries.
Fishing has played a major role in Iceland's economy and national identity. Iceland fought Britain in a series of disputes known as the Cod Wars between 1958 and 1976 over fishing rights and control of its waters.
The issue remains important because EU membership would bring Iceland into the European Union's Common Fisheries Policy, although the exact arrangements would have to be negotiated.
Iceland's Foreign Minister Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir has said the country would not accept a membership agreement that failed to protect its control over fisheries.
The European Union has not agreed to any special fisheries arrangement with Iceland. The European Commission has said it is too early to discuss the issue before negotiations resume.
Agriculture is another area that could prove difficult in future negotiations.
Supporters of renewed talks say Iceland already has close economic links with the European Union but does not have the same representation in EU decision making as member states.
Iceland is part of the European Economic Area, which gives it access to the EU single market. It is also part of the Schengen area and the European Free Trade Association.
Supporters say EU membership could give Iceland a direct role in European decision making. They also point to possible economic benefits, including greater currency stability and the possibility of adopting the euro in the future.
Opponents argue that Iceland already receives many benefits from its close relationship with Europe without becoming an EU member. They are particularly concerned about fisheries, agriculture, the national currency and control over national resources.
Security has also become part of the debate.
Iceland is a founding member of NATO and has no standing army. Its security arrangements include NATO and a defence agreement with the United States dating from 1951.
The referendum is taking place against a changing security situation in the Arctic. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about acquiring Greenland, Iceland's nearest large neighbour. His statements have increased attention on Iceland's strategic position in the North Atlantic.
However, the debate is not only about the United States or Greenland. Domestic issues, including the cost of living, the economy, fisheries and sovereignty, remain important factors in the campaign.
If voters approve the resumption of negotiations, Iceland's Foreign Ministry has estimated that talks could begin by the end of 2026 and could take about 18 to 24 months.
European officials have indicated that Iceland could make relatively quick progress in renewed accession talks because it is already closely integrated with the European single market and completed substantial work during the earlier negotiations.
A vote in favour, however, would not make Iceland an EU member.
Any final membership agreement would have to go through the European Union's approval process and would also require approval by Icelandic voters in a second referendum.
For now, Icelanders face a narrower decision: whether to reopen negotiations and find out what terms the European Union might offer.
With the two sides separated by only a few percentage points in the latest poll, Saturday's vote could determine whether Iceland's long running debate over EU membership enters a new phase.