Thiruvananthapuram: Rain is expected to bring some relief from the high temperatures in Kerala over the coming days, but the state’s electricity crisis is likely to continue through much of September, with the Kerala State Electricity Board indicating that power restrictions could continue until September 30.
The India Meteorological Department has forecast light to moderate rain at several places in Kerala until September 13, with isolated heavy rain expected from September 10 to 12.
A yellow warning has been issued for Alappuzha and Ernakulam on September 10. The warning will cover Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki and Ernakulam on September 11. On September 12, the warning will apply to Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Ernakulam and Palakkad.
The yellow warning indicates the possibility of isolated heavy rainfall of 64.5 mm to 115.5 mm within 24 hours.
The expected rain could reduce temperatures and ease electricity demand for cooling. However, it remains unclear whether the rainfall will be sufficient to significantly improve reservoir inflows and ease the power shortage.
Kerala has been facing a serious electricity supply problem as demand has increased while rainfall and water inflows into reservoirs have remained inadequate for higher hydropower generation.
Power Minister Sunny Joseph said electricity demand in the state had risen to about 5,200 megawatts in September, compared with 3,794 megawatts during the same month last year.
Joseph said Kerala generates only about 25 percent of the electricity it consumes. The state therefore depends heavily on electricity from outside sources, making it more vulnerable when power availability elsewhere is also under pressure.
Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan said peak hour electricity use had increased by about 800 to 900 megawatts compared with previous years. He also pointed to inadequate rainfall and lower water inflows into dams as factors affecting electricity generation.
The shortage has forced KSEB to continue partial power restrictions, mainly during the evening and night peak period. The restrictions have been reported between about 6.30 pm and 1 am.
The restrictions have caused concern among consumers because some outages have taken place without adequate advance information. The government has now decided to introduce a feeder level system to alert consumers about expected power restrictions in advance.
Sunny Joseph said the system would help consumers receive information about planned restrictions, although it may not always be completely accurate. The move follows complaints about unexpected outages and difficulties faced by households and other consumers.
The duration of the restrictions remains an important issue.
The government had earlier said it was working to address the power shortage by around September 15. However, KSEB chairman M G Rajamanickam has indicated that restrictions may continue until September 30.
KSEB expects about 500 megawatts of additional power to become available from October 1. Power swap arrangements are also expected to provide additional supply and help reduce the current shortage.
The board has urged consumers to conserve electricity and reduce unnecessary use during periods of peak demand.
The present crisis has several causes. Higher temperatures have increased electricity demand for cooling, while weaker rainfall has reduced water inflows into reservoirs and limited hydropower generation.
Electricity availability outside Kerala has also been under pressure, making it more difficult for the state to secure enough additional power during periods of peak demand.
Power Minister Sunny Joseph said the crisis was not limited to Kerala and linked the wider situation to climate conditions and rainfall shortages. He also said Kerala had considered several options to purchase electricity through the real time market, day ahead market and short term agreements, but supply restrictions had affected those efforts.
The political debate over the crisis has also intensified.
Leader of the Opposition V D Satheesan has criticised the previous Left Democratic Front government for cancelling a power purchase agreement signed during the United Democratic Front government. He has argued that retaining the agreement would have helped Kerala avoid the present shortage.
The claim is part of the wider political debate over the causes of the current power shortage. Officials have identified rising demand, high temperatures, inadequate rainfall, lower reservoir inflows and limited availability of electricity for purchase as key factors behind the crisis.
The current situation is also linked to supply problems at some power generating stations outside Kerala. Reports have indicated that heavy monsoon rainfall has affected coal based power generation at some plants, reducing the electricity available to states that depend on power from outside sources.
For people in Kerala, the expected rain could provide some relief from the recent heat. A fall in temperatures could also reduce electricity demand, particularly for cooling.
However, the effect of the rainfall on the power situation will depend on several factors, including temperatures, reservoir inflows and the availability of electricity from outside the state.
While the rain may bring temporary relief from the heat, power restrictions are expected to continue until additional electricity becomes available. KSEB has asked consumers to conserve power as the state works to manage the shortage through the rest of September.