Dubai: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply as tensions between Iran and the United States continue, while attacks by Yemen's Houthi movement on Saudi Arabia are adding to concerns about wider regional security.
Only 12 trackable commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, down from 35 the previous weekend. Before the conflict began on February 28, the strategic waterway normally handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day.
The sharp fall in visible traffic has raised concerns about the movement of oil, gas and other goods through one of the world's most important shipping routes. However, the latest figures do not mean that oil exports from the region have stopped.
Some Middle Eastern oil tankers are continuing to move with their tracking transponders switched off, making it difficult to establish the full number of vessels passing through the waterway.
Saudi Arabia has also increased the amount of crude it is sending through the Strait of Hormuz after an attack on its East West pipeline disrupted an alternative export route through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The pipeline attack was attributed to Iran backed militants in Iraq. The disruption has pushed Saudi Arabia to rely more heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for crude shipments.
Saudi crude exports have recovered to more than 4 million barrels per day so far in September, according to provisional shipping data. That compares with about 2.4 million barrels per day in August, which was the country's lowest level since at least 2013.
During the week beginning September 13, 13 tankers carrying about 34 million barrels of crude left the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia accounted for about half of that volume, while Iraq accounted for about 35 percent.
The figures show that the regional oil trade is continuing despite the severe disruption to shipping. Producers are using alternative routes and other methods to keep supplies moving, although security risks and costs remain high.
The maritime crisis is taking place as Iran and the United States exchange new warnings over the possibility of further military action.
Iran warned on Sunday against any major new attack by the United States and its allies. Iranian military authorities said they had information that a new attack could be prepared and warned that any such action would lead to retaliation against US bases and interests and those of regional allies.
Iran did not publicly provide details to support its claim that a new attack was being prepared. The warning therefore reflects Iran's stated assessment and threat rather than confirmation that the United States has decided to launch another attack.
US President Donald Trump has continued to pressure Iran while also saying he is open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian is expected to attend the United Nations General Assembly in New York this week.
The diplomatic possibility comes as military tensions remain high across the region.
The Saudi led coalition said its air defences intercepted a ballistic missile launched towards the capital, Riyadh, on September 19. The Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack and also reported attacks on other Saudi targets. Claims about damage to some of those targets have not all been independently verified.
The attacks have increased security pressure on Saudi Arabia and added to concerns about regional transport and energy routes.
The situation in Yemen is also becoming increasingly important for international shipping. The Houthis have expanded their military presence in western Yemen and around areas close to the Bab el Mandeb Strait, a major maritime route connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.
The United Nations has warned about growing security risks around Yemen and the Red Sea. The developments are being closely watched because any wider disruption around Bab el Mandeb could add another challenge to international trade at a time when shipping through Hormuz is already severely affected.
As of September 15, the International Maritime Organization had confirmed 80 attacks on international shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in at least 22 seafarer deaths. The organisation has also warned about the impact of the crisis on thousands of seafarers working in the region.
Diplomacy will receive renewed attention this week as world leaders gather in New York for the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly. The high level general debate begins on September 22.
Pezeshkian is scheduled to address the General Assembly on Wednesday. His presence in New York could provide an opportunity for further diplomatic contacts at a time when military threats remain high.
For now, shipping through Hormuz remains far below normal levels while oil producers continue to use alternative methods to keep exports moving. The wider security situation remains closely tied to developments involving Iran, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.