Addis Ababa: Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has deepened regional tensions after Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic relations, raising fears that the conflict could spread beyond Ethiopia's borders.
The fighting, which resumed on September 22, has involved Ethiopian federal forces and forces aligned with the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, along with allied armed groups. Clashes have been reported in Tigray, Afar and Amhara regions.
The latest diplomatic crisis began on October 1 when Ethiopia ordered the closure of its embassy in Asmara and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting the opposition alliance fighting the federal government. Eritrea has denied supporting the alliance. Ethiopia has also accused Sudan and Egypt of supporting forces fighting its government. Those allegations have been rejected.
Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat, while Egypt responded by expelling an Ethiopian embassy counsellor. The diplomatic actions have added to tensions between Ethiopia and its regional neighbours.
The African Union on October 2 called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise maximum restraint and resolve their differences through diplomatic channels and peaceful dialogue.
The renewed fighting marks the most serious breakdown of the fragile peace established after the Tigray war, which lasted from 2020 to 2022. That conflict ended with the signing of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in November 2022.
The current fighting has already created a serious humanitarian situation. Médecins Sans Frontières reported that the number of war wounded treated at hospitals in Korem and Alamata rose from around 180 to more than 420 over a 48 hour period between September 22 and September 25.
More than 300 wounded people also arrived at Suhul Hospital in Shire during the same period, according to the medical charity.
Humanitarian operations have been disrupted by insecurity. Médecins Sans Frontières suspended activities at Alamata hospital because of the security situation, while fighting and communication disruptions have made it harder for aid groups to reach affected communities.
The United Nations has warned about the impact of the renewed violence on civilians. UN human rights chief Volker Türk has expressed concern over reports of airstrikes, drone attacks, civilian deaths and other abuses.
The exact number of people displaced by the new fighting remains uncertain. Humanitarian officials have reported significant new displacement, while thousands of people who were already displaced during the earlier Tigray war remain vulnerable to further displacement.
The military situation is changing quickly. Ethiopian federal forces and their allies have been advancing toward Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, and were reported to have moved to within about 40 kilometres of the city.
Government forces and their allies have claimed control of strategic areas, including Alamata, while opposing forces have also reported territorial gains in parts of Tigray and Afar.
Some of these battlefield claims remain difficult to independently verify. The situation on the ground is changing rapidly, making it important to treat claims about territorial control with caution.
The crisis has also reached Ethiopia's capital. Explosions were heard in Addis Ababa during the night of September 30 and October 1.
A source linked to the opposition alliance claimed that drone attacks had targeted military positions. Ethiopian authorities confirmed that three explosions occurred but said it was not immediately clear what caused them.
Ethiopia's national intelligence service has banned drone flights over Addis Ababa and surrounding areas.
The growing conflict is being closely watched because of its links to wider tensions in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia and Eritrea have a complicated history. Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the previous Tigray war, when the two sides were fighting against the TPLF.
Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have since deteriorated. Ethiopia's interest in securing reliable access to the Red Sea has also been a source of concern in the region.
The conflict is unfolding while neighbouring Sudan continues to face a major war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. Ethiopia also has longstanding disagreements with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the use of Nile waters.
These regional tensions have increased concern that the renewed fighting in Ethiopia could become more than an internal conflict. However, it remains unclear whether the crisis will develop into a wider regional war.
The United Nations, African Union and regional organisations are continuing diplomatic efforts to prevent further escalation. UN officials have called for an immediate reduction in tensions and safe access for humanitarian organisations.
For civilians in northern Ethiopia, however, the immediate concern remains the fighting itself. Hospitals are treating wounded people, communities are facing displacement and humanitarian organisations are struggling to maintain access.
With Ethiopia and Eritrea now separated diplomatically and fighting continuing across northern Ethiopia, international efforts to prevent a return to prolonged war are becoming increasingly important.