Geneva: UNICEF has warned that the developing 2026 to 2027 El Niño could expose more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories to unusually wet or dry conditions, with floods, droughts and other climate related impacts threatening their health, nutrition, education and access to essential services.
The United Nations agency for children said the phenomenon is expected to become one of the strongest El Niño events on record. El Niño occurs when waters in parts of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, affecting weather patterns in many parts of the world.
UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said the consequences for children extend beyond the weather itself. Children could face displacement, malnutrition, water shortages, disease outbreaks and disruptions to schooling, while families could also experience greater financial pressure.
Asia and the Pacific are expected to have the largest number of children affected. UNICEF estimates that about 190 million children in the region could experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026.
About 41 million children in East and Southern Africa and a similar number in Latin America and the Caribbean are also expected to be affected. Around 22 million children in Europe and Central Asia could face similar conditions, while approximately 20 million children in each of the Middle East and North Africa and West and Central Africa could also be exposed.
In countries such as Colombia, Fiji, Papua New Guinea and the Philippines, drier conditions could contribute to agricultural drought and water shortages. The loss of livelihoods and reduced access to food and water could increase displacement and worsen acute malnutrition among children.
The Greater Horn of Africa could experience the opposite conditions, with wetter than normal weather expected. In Somalia, heavy rainfall could lead to river and flash flooding, increase the spread of water borne diseases and disrupt children's education.
UNICEF said children living in areas already affected by poverty, conflict and displacement could face the greatest risks. Climate shocks in countries such as Afghanistan and Chad could further worsen hunger and malnutrition in communities where children already have limited access to essential services.
Extreme weather can also create wider protection risks. When families lose their homes or livelihoods and are forced to move, children can become more vulnerable to family separation, violence, exploitation and child marriage.
UNICEF pointed to Ethiopia's experience during the 2022 drought in the Horn of Africa, when child marriage increased by an average of 119 per cent in areas affected by drought.
The agency said the coming El Niño is developing at a time when children are already facing serious climate related risks. UNICEF estimates that 1.1 billion children, almost half of all children worldwide, are exposed to at least three overlapping climate hazards, including drought, extreme heat and flooding.
Education is another major concern. Climate related disasters disrupted learning for an estimated 171 million students worldwide in 2025. Further droughts and floods could result in more school closures, interrupted attendance and a greater risk of children leaving school.
UNICEF is calling on governments, donors and humanitarian partners to use the advance warning provided by climate forecasts to prepare communities before the most severe effects occur. The agency is urging greater investment in disaster preparedness, climate resilient systems and the protection of essential services such as water, health care and education.
UNICEF also wants humanitarian organisations to have access to communities affected by extreme weather. It says every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction and prevention can save up to US$15 in recovery costs, while less than 1 per cent of humanitarian funding currently goes towards anticipatory action.
With several months of warning available, UNICEF is urging governments and partners to act before needs become more severe. Early preparation, the agency says, can help communities withstand droughts and floods, protect children and maintain vital services as the effects of El Niño develop.