Rome: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has warned that a diesel supply agreement involving the United States and Russia is a risky decision that could weaken international pressure on Moscow over its war against Ukraine.
Speaking in the Italian Senate on Wednesday ahead of a European Union summit, Meloni questioned the benefits of the arrangement. She argued that it could provide Russia with additional revenue while the war continues and send the wrong message at a time when Western countries are seeking to bring the conflict to an end.
The agreement has drawn criticism from European officials, Ukraine and members of the United States Congress. Supporters of the arrangement argue that additional fuel supplies could help ease energy costs and form part of wider efforts to encourage negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump announced the proposed arrangement on October 9. Under the plan, Russia would initially supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to the United States and international markets. A further 500,000 tonnes were announced for November, followed by another one million tonnes.
The initial supply is equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels of diesel. However, these figures refer to announced quantities, and the available information does not establish that all the planned shipments have been delivered.
The Trump administration has presented the arrangement as a way to address high energy costs and support efforts to bring Russia back to negotiations over Ukraine. The plan has also raised questions about US sanctions on Russian energy exports and the extent to which the administration can ease restrictions under existing law.
The United States has announced sanctions relief connected to the diesel arrangement, while the European Union has maintained its separate policy of reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels. The precise legal scope of the US measures remains important to the wider dispute.
Meloni has challenged the economic justification for the agreement. She argued that the recent increase in fuel prices is driven primarily by the war in Iran rather than the war in Ukraine. Her remarks highlight the difficulty of separating energy market pressures from the wider conflicts affecting global supplies.
The actual impact of the proposed diesel shipments on fuel prices remains uncertain. The initial supply is small compared with US transport sector demand, estimated at approximately 2.94 million barrels per day. Its effect on fuel prices will depend on actual deliveries and wider market conditions.
There are also practical questions about Russia's ability to deliver the promised quantities. Russian refineries have faced damage from Ukrainian drone attacks, while domestic fuel requirements and the availability of tankers could limit the amount of diesel available for export.
The potential revenue for Russia has added to the controversy. An estimate puts the gross export revenue from an initial shipment of 300,000 tonnes at approximately $400 million. However, this is an estimate rather than a confirmed financial outcome. The amount that would reach the Russian government, including through taxes and other payments, remains unclear.
The European Union has continued to emphasise its policy of reducing dependence on Russian fossil fuels. European officials have expressed concern that renewed purchases of Russian energy could undermine efforts to restrict Moscow's financial resources and maintain pressure over the war.
Ukraine has also criticised the arrangement. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that measures benefiting Russia could encourage Moscow to continue its military campaign rather than make meaningful concessions towards peace.
Opposition has also emerged in the United States. On October 13, a group of 12 senators, including six Republicans, urged Trump to reverse course and withdraw the agreement. The lawmakers raised concerns about the implications for sanctions policy and the administration's legal authority.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has defended the administration's position, saying it would act within its existing legal authority. The dispute has not established that the agreement is illegal, but it highlights continuing disagreement over the administration's approach to Russia and the war in Ukraine.
Alongside her criticism of the diesel arrangement, Meloni called for a stronger and more coordinated European role in negotiations over Ukraine. She proposed that the European Union appoint an authoritative representative to speak on behalf of its 27 member states.
She also suggested that France, Germany and the United Kingdom could represent the wider European position if they received a formal mandate. Her proposal reflects concerns that Europe needs a clearer and more unified voice in diplomatic efforts to end the war.
However, the proposal remains a political suggestion rather than an agreed European Union policy. It is not yet clear whether member states will support a common representative or how such a role would work alongside existing diplomatic efforts.
European leaders are due to meet in Brussels on October 15 and 16. The discussions are expected to provide an opportunity to consider the war in Ukraine, relations with Russia and the wider implications of changing energy policies.
The central question is whether the diesel arrangement can deliver meaningful economic or diplomatic benefits without weakening pressure on Moscow. With deliveries, fuel price effects and progress towards peace still uncertain, Meloni's criticism highlights the growing disagreement over how Western countries should balance energy needs with their political and security objectives.