New Delhi: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio began his visit to India on Tuesday, with trade negotiations and India's continued purchases of Russian oil expected to feature prominently in discussions between the two countries. The visit comes as Washington and New Delhi seek to advance a trade agreement while managing differences over energy supplies and sanctions against Russia.
Rubio is scheduled to meet India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar in Mumbai. The discussions are expected to cover trade, energy, investment, defence, and critical and emerging technologies. Rubio is also expected to meet Indian business leaders, including Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani, as part of efforts to strengthen economic ties between the two countries.
The visit follows recent signs of progress in negotiations on a proposed India US trade agreement. Rubio has described the agreement as very close to completion, while India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said the first phase had been finalised and was undergoing legal drafting. However, a final agreement has not been confirmed as signed.
Important details, including the final terms and implementation arrangements, remain to be clarified. India has stressed the need for an agreement that allows its exporters to compete effectively with businesses from other countries.
Trade relations between the two countries have faced uncertainty over tariffs and other economic differences. India is seeking greater certainty for its exporters in the US market, which is an important destination for Indian goods. Any agreement could influence trade, investment and economic cooperation between the two countries.
A recent decision by US President Donald Trump to waive key provisions of new Russia sanctions legislation has added another dimension to the negotiations. On October 16, Trump signed an executive order providing waivers under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.
The legislation was intended to increase economic pressure on Russia over its war against Ukraine. The measures could have exposed goods from major buyers of Russian oil, including India, to tariffs of up to 100 percent.
The decision to grant the waivers has eased an immediate source of uncertainty for India. However, it does not amount to a permanent cancellation of the legislation or the removal of all US sanctions against Russia. The administration retains the authority to reconsider the waivers.
The decision has also prompted criticism from lawmakers in Washington who want the United States to maintain stronger economic pressure on Moscow. The debate reflects the difficulty of balancing efforts to pressure Russia with concerns about energy supplies, fuel prices and the economic interests of other countries.
India's purchases of Russian crude have been a major point of disagreement between New Delhi and Washington. India imports more than 85 percent of its crude oil requirements, making reliable and affordable supplies important for its economy.
Russia became a major supplier of crude oil to India after Western countries imposed restrictions on Russian energy exports following the invasion of Ukraine. Indian refiners increased their purchases of Russian oil, benefiting from competitive prices.
Recent reports indicate that India has reduced its reliance on Russian crude compared with earlier in the year. However, Russia continues to supply substantial quantities of oil to the country. India has also sought to diversify its energy sources, although replacing a major supplier cannot happen immediately.
For Washington, reducing Russia's energy revenues is part of the broader effort to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine. For New Delhi, decisions about oil purchases also involve domestic energy demand, prices and the need to maintain stable supplies.
The US administration has also announced an agreement for Russian diesel supplies, raising further questions about how Washington intends to balance its sanctions policy with concerns over fuel prices. The announcement does not establish that all the promised supplies have been delivered.
Beyond the immediate trade and energy issues, the visit reflects the wider importance of relations between the United States and India. Both countries have interests in defence cooperation, investment and the development of critical and emerging technologies. These areas offer opportunities for cooperation even as disagreements over trade and Russia remain.
Indian exports to the United States reached 42.79 billion dollars between April and August 2026, compared with 40.39 billion dollars during the same period a year earlier. India also recorded a trade surplus of 34 billion dollars with the United States in the 2025 to 2026 financial year, highlighting the importance of the American market to Indian businesses.
The outcome of Rubio's discussions in Mumbai could provide a clearer indication of whether the two governments are ready to move from advanced negotiations towards a formal agreement. The final tariff arrangements, the treatment of Indian exports and the future of India's Russian oil purchases remain important issues.
The visit offers both countries an opportunity to make progress on trade while addressing their differences over energy and sanctions. Whether the discussions lead to a signed agreement or further negotiations will depend on the commitments the two governments are prepared to make.