Geneva: The world is on course to exceed the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, even under the most ambitious climate pathway, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Global temperatures could peak between 1.7°C and 1.8°C above pre industrial levels around the middle of the century before potentially returning to 1.5°C or below by 2100.
The report warns that current government policies and climate commitments are not sufficient to prevent a significant rise in global temperatures. Under existing policies, the world could experience warming of about 2.8°C by the end of the century. Even if countries fully implement their existing climate pledges, temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 2.6°C.
Titled Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, the assessment examines the difference between the greenhouse gas emissions reductions needed to meet international climate goals and those expected under current government plans. It comes ahead of the next United Nations climate conference, known as COP31, which is scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from 9 to 20 November.
UNEP says global greenhouse gas emissions must fall much faster to limit the extent and duration of the expected temperature overshoot. Under the most ambitious pathway, global emissions would need to decline by 18 per cent by 2030, 45 per cent by 2035 and 69 per cent by 2040, compared with 2025 levels.
However, current national climate plans fall well short of these requirements. The reductions expected under existing commitments amount to only 5 per cent to 8 per cent by 2030 and 11 per cent to 15 per cent by 2035, compared with 2025 levels. This gap highlights the challenge facing governments as they seek to meet international climate targets.
The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, commits countries to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Scientists warn that every additional fraction of a degree increases the risks of extreme heat, drought, flooding, rising sea levels and damage to ecosystems.
UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold should not be treated as a reason to abandon climate action. Limiting the amount of warming and reducing the time temperatures remain above the threshold are still important goals, even if the world temporarily exceeds it.
UNEP estimates that the most ambitious pathway has roughly a 50 per cent chance of bringing global warming back to 1.5°C or below by 2100. However, this outcome is not guaranteed. It would require much deeper emissions cuts and the removal of large quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Carbon dioxide removal involves taking the greenhouse gas out of the atmosphere and storing it to prevent it from contributing further to global warming. Achieving this on a large scale presents significant challenges and cannot replace the need to reduce emissions at their source.
The United States is also a factor in the worsening climate outlook. UNEP attributes part of the deterioration in its projections to the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. Separately, US greenhouse gas emissions increased by 133 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, according to figures reported alongside the assessment. This increase highlights the difficulties involved in reducing emissions while meeting growing energy demand, but it does not explain the entire global emissions gap.
Despite the warning, the expansion of renewable energy and the development of cleaner technologies offer opportunities to reduce future emissions. Governments can improve the outlook by strengthening climate commitments, accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and reducing methane emissions.
The findings are expected to add pressure on governments preparing for COP31 in Antalya. The conference will provide an opportunity for countries to discuss how to strengthen their climate plans and turn existing commitments into practical action.
The report does not mean that the highest projected levels of warming are inevitable. Instead, it highlights how decisions made in the coming years will influence the future climate. Faster and deeper emissions reductions could limit the temperature rise, reduce the duration of any overshoot and improve the chances of returning to the 1.5°C threshold by the end of the century.
UNEP's central warning is that the gap between climate ambitions and actual action remains too wide. Although progress has been made in developing cleaner energy sources and setting emissions targets, existing efforts are insufficient to meet the world's most ambitious climate goal. Governments now face increasing pressure to turn their commitments into measurable emissions cuts before the remaining opportunities to limit global warming become more difficult to achieve.