Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a major political test as the country prepares to vote in its first general election since the Hamas led attack on October 7, 2023. The election on Tuesday will test public confidence in his leadership, the government's handling of national security and its response to one of the most painful events in Israel's recent history.
Netanyahu's political future remains uncertain, with the latest opinion polls suggesting that his coalition could struggle to secure the parliamentary majority needed to form a government. Although the opposition parties may collectively win enough seats to challenge his bloc, they face difficulties in agreeing on a common government. The result could therefore lead to lengthy negotiations and further political uncertainty.
For many Israelis, the election is an opportunity to demand answers about how the October 7 attack happened and whether the government and security agencies failed to protect the country. Survivors, bereaved families and relatives of former hostages continue to call for accountability.
The attack, led by Hamas and other armed groups, killed about 1,200 people in Israel and resulted in 251 people being taken hostage. The attack exposed serious failures in Israel's intelligence and security systems and raised questions about the country's preparedness.
One of the communities deeply affected was Be'eri, a kibbutz in southern Israel where roughly one in ten residents died during the attack. The experiences of survivors reflect the continuing pain and anger among families who believe that the failures leading to the attack must be fully investigated.
Netanyahu has rejected calls for an independent state investigation into the security failures. His critics argue that he bears political responsibility for the attack and should have resigned. They say an independent inquiry is necessary to establish what went wrong and determine who was responsible.
Netanyahu and his supporters, however, point to his experience in national security and the military operations carried out against Hamas and other regional adversaries. They argue that his leadership remains important at a time when Israel continues to face serious security threats.
The hostage crisis has also shaped public debate. The remaining hostages were released under a ceasefire arrangement brokered by the United States in 2025. However, the release has not ended demands from former hostages, survivors and bereaved families for a full account of the events surrounding the attack.
Former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, is one of Netanyahu's main challengers. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, whose party has allied with Yair Lapid in the Together alliance, is another important figure in the opposition. Other parties, including those led by Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan, could also influence efforts to form the next government.
The latest polling average published by Reuters suggests that parties opposed to Netanyahu could collectively win 62 seats in the 120 member Knesset. However, this does not guarantee a change of government, as the parties may struggle to agree on a coalition. Polls are estimates rather than final results, and the distribution of seats will become clear only after voting and the counting process.
A government normally needs the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset to command a parliamentary majority. Smaller parties could therefore play an important role in determining who becomes prime minister. Arab political parties may also influence the outcome, although cooperation with them remains politically contentious among major Jewish parties.
Beyond the October 7 attack, the campaign has highlighted divisions over military service and the judicial system. Exemptions from military service for many ultra Orthodox Jewish men have become a major source of public anger, particularly as Israeli soldiers and reservists face repeated deployments and extended periods of duty.
Netanyahu's earlier efforts to change the judicial system also remain controversial. The proposals triggered large protests in 2023 and raised concerns among opponents about judicial independence and the balance of power in Israel's political system.
Netanyahu's ongoing domestic corruption trial is another issue affecting public debate. He also faces an international arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. These are separate legal matters, and neither should be confused with a final determination of responsibility for the October 7 security failures.
The election is taking place against the background of the wider regional conflict that followed the attack. Israel's military campaign in Gaza has caused extensive destruction and a severe humanitarian crisis. Palestinian health authorities have reported more than 74,000 deaths. The figure is attributed to local health authorities, and the full toll remains difficult to verify independently during an ongoing conflict.
The wars and tensions involving Lebanon and Iran have further increased the importance of security and foreign policy in the campaign. Yet Palestinian statehood and the future of Gaza have received limited attention in the main election debate, despite their importance to the region's long term stability.
United States President Donald Trump publicly renewed his endorsement of Netanyahu on October 25, urging Israeli voters to support him and highlighting his position on Iran. The endorsement added an international dimension to the final days of the campaign, as relations between Washington and Jerusalem remain important to regional security and diplomacy.
Despite the intense campaign, it remains unclear whether voters will deliver a decisive political verdict or leave Israel facing another period of uncertainty. If no clear majority emerges, parties may need weeks of negotiations to establish a government. Failure to reach an agreement could also create the possibility of another election.
For survivors of October 7 and families who lost loved ones, the vote carries significance beyond the usual contest between political parties. It is also an opportunity to express their views on responsibility, national security and the country's future leadership.
As Israelis prepare to cast their ballots on October 27, Netanyahu is seeking to retain power while his opponents argue that the country needs a change of direction. The result will determine the balance of power in parliament and shape the political conditions under which Israel addresses the consequences of October 7 and the continuing challenges facing the region.