Jerusalem: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's political bloc is leading the provisional election count, but it remains short of the parliamentary majority needed to form a government. His main challenger, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, is also facing difficulties securing enough support to take power, leaving Israel's political future uncertain.
With nearly 86 per cent of the votes counted, provisional projections placed Netanyahu's right wing and religious bloc at 53 seats in the 120 seat Knesset, Israel's parliament. Eisenkot's opposition bloc was projected to win 48 seats, while Arab led parties were expected to secure 19 seats.
A government needs the support of at least 61 members of the Knesset to command a majority. The latest figures leave both main blocs short of that threshold. However, the opposition bloc and Arab led parties together have a projected 67 seats, giving them a potential numerical majority. Whether they can cooperate to form a government remains uncertain.
The figures differ from the initial exit polls, which indicated a closely contested election. As more votes were counted, Netanyahu's bloc strengthened its position relative to the opposition. However, the count remains provisional, and outstanding ballots could change the distribution of seats.
Netanyahu and Eisenkot have both sought to demonstrate that they can lead the next government. Netanyahu, who heads the Likud party, is seeking to remain in office after a period marked by war, security concerns and domestic political divisions. His allies include religious and far right parties whose support could be essential to forming a government.
Eisenkot, who leads the Yashar party, is a former chief of the Israel Defense Forces. He has presented himself as an alternative to Netanyahu, but his ability to form a government depends on securing support from other parties with different political positions.
Arab led parties have emerged as a potentially decisive force in the election. Their projected 19 seats could help the opposition reach a parliamentary majority if an agreement can be reached. However, the parties have different priorities, and their potential influence should not be confused with a confirmed coalition agreement.
Netanyahu has rejected the prospect of depending on Arab parties to form a government. Political disagreements could also complicate efforts by Eisenkot and other opposition leaders to secure their support. The next stage is therefore likely to involve difficult negotiations over the composition and priorities of a possible government.
Turnout reached 77.7 per cent, the highest since 1999, according to reported election figures. The strong participation comes at a significant moment for Israel, as voters consider the country's security, leadership and future direction following the Hamas led attacks of October 7, 2023.
The attacks killed about 1,200 people in Israel, and 251 people were taken hostage, according to reported figures. The subsequent war in Gaza and wider regional conflict have placed the government's security record and handling of the crisis at the centre of national debate.
Other important issues include exemptions from military service for ultra Orthodox Jewish men, the influence of religious parties and concerns about the country's political direction. Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial has also remained part of the debate about his leadership. He denies the allegations against him.
The election outcome could also affect regional security. Netanyahu has highlighted Israel's military achievements and discussed the possibility of further joint action against Iran with US President Donald Trump. His remarks do not, however, confirm that a new military operation has been agreed.
President Isaac Herzog will play an important role in the next stage of government formation. After the official results are published, he is expected to consult representatives of the elected parliamentary groups and consider which member of parliament has the best chance of forming a government.
The Central Elections Committee's timetable sets November 4 as the deadline for publishing the final results. A clearer picture may emerge earlier as the remaining ballots are counted, but the official seat allocation could still change.
Netanyahu can remain caretaker prime minister while the political process continues. If no candidate can secure sufficient support to form a government, Israel could face a prolonged period of political uncertainty and the possibility of another election.
For now, Netanyahu's bloc has the stronger position in the provisional count, but the election has not settled who will govern Israel. The final results and subsequent coalition negotiations will determine whether Netanyahu can retain power or whether the opposition can assemble a viable alternative.