Nairobi: Kenya is strengthening its preparations for unusually heavy rainfall expected during the October to December rainy season as a powerful El Niño climate phenomenon raises concerns about flooding, displacement and damage to communities. The National Disaster Operations Centre estimates that approximately 1.5 million people are at risk of being affected and has urged residents living in flood prone areas to move to safer locations.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned that November is expected to bring the heaviest rainfall of the season. Authorities have stepped up emergency preparations, including clearing drainage systems, removing structures along riverbanks and identifying temporary shelters for people who may need to evacuate. The warnings come as climate scientists report that El Niño continues to strengthen. The World Meteorological Organization has indicated that the phenomenon could become one of the strongest recorded events and is likely to persist into early 2027.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern involving unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It influences weather conditions in different parts of the world and can change rainfall patterns. In East Africa, it is associated with an increased likelihood of above average rainfall during certain seasons. The National Disaster Operations Centre has advised people living near rivers and in other vulnerable locations to move to higher ground. However, many residents in Nairobi's informal settlements face difficulties relocating because they cannot afford safer accommodation.
For Mary Okello, a resident of Mathare in Nairobi, the approaching rainy season brings painful memories of the devastating floods in 2024. She lost her belongings when floodwaters submerged homes along the river. At the time, Okello was working at her hair salon when heavy rainfall began. She rushed home to evacuate her five children, but the family watched as floodwaters swept away their possessions and submerged houses in the area.
She has since moved to higher ground in Mathare, where many families continue to live in houses built with corrugated iron sheets along the Mathare River, a major tributary of the Nairobi River. Another survivor, George Simeka, a poultry keeper and urban farmer who previously lived along the Nairobi River, remembers how his home and those of his neighbours were submerged during the 2024 floods. He lost his property and livelihood and had to rebuild his life after the disaster.
Jackline Mueni, another flood survivor, recalled how families lost important documents, including birth certificates and national identification cards. She said women and children faced particular difficulties during the disaster. Although she has relocated, she now shares a small room with her children because of the financial difficulties involved in finding safer housing. Their experiences highlight the difficulties facing communities that remain exposed to recurring floods despite previous disasters and government warnings.
A 2026 report by the World Resources Institute identified several factors contributing to Nairobi's growing flood vulnerability. These include inadequate drainage systems, unplanned urban development, the loss of wetlands and weak enforcement of land use regulations. The findings indicate that heavy rainfall is not the only cause of the city's flooding problems. Poor waste management and the construction of homes in flood prone areas also increase the risks.
Nairobi County disaster management officer Bramwell Simiyu said sewage and garbage from homes along the Mathare River contribute to blocked waterways, worsening flooding during periods of heavy rainfall. County authorities are carrying out cleanup operations to remove rubbish from rivers and drainage channels and improve the flow of water. Residents are also participating in these efforts.
Victor Ojoo, a resident of Mathare, is among those helping with the cleanup activities. He previously lost his pigs and source of income when floodwaters swept through the area. Authorities have also demolished structures built along sections of the Nairobi River to maintain a recommended buffer zone of 30 metres between the river and residential areas. The measure is intended to reduce encroachment on waterways and help prevent flooding.
Nairobi County disaster management officer Bramwell Simiyu said officials had identified approximately 172 locations where residents could receive temporary shelter, food and medicine during evacuations. The county also plans to work with mobile service provider Safaricom to send emergency alerts and important information to residents ahead of potential disasters. Officials have stressed the need for better coordination among agencies involved in emergency response.
Kenya is also strengthening its healthcare preparations. The Ministry of Health has issued guidance to all 47 counties, warning that heavy rainfall and flooding could contaminate water supplies and increase the risk of diseases such as cholera, typhoid and malaria. The World Health Organization has supported preparations involving the Kenya Defence Forces, including training health professionals and testing emergency response arrangements for possible flooding and disease outbreaks.
Regional cooperation is also being strengthened. On November 9, the East African Community announced the adoption of a regional El Niño emergency preparedness and response plan. The initiative aims to improve coordination, share early warnings and support affected communities across its eight member states. Regional climate assessments have also indicated an increased likelihood of wetter than normal conditions in parts of Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi during the final months of 2026.
As Kenya prepares for the coming weeks of the rainy season, the experiences of previous flood survivors highlight the importance of early warnings, effective emergency response and long term investment in safer housing and urban infrastructure. While authorities are increasing their preparedness efforts, many vulnerable families remain concerned about whether they can protect themselves from another season of destructive flooding.