A group of influential South Koreans have gathered in a private room of an underground restaurant in Seoul to discuss the possibility of developing nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Policy Forum's lunchtime agenda aims to plot out how South Korea can develop nuclear weapons to counter the threat posed by their nuclear-armed neighbor, North Korea. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol recently raised the possibility of developing nuclear weapons during a defence meeting, making him the only president to have put this option on the table in recent times. Now, 75% of the public supports the idea, and  Yoon is seeking President Joe Biden's help.

South Korea had previously run a secret programme in the 1970s to develop nuclear weapons but picked US support over continuing the programme. However, the geopolitical situation has changed dramatically since then, with North Korea building ever-more sophisticated nuclear weapons that can target cities across the US, leaving people to question whether Washington would still come to South Korea's defence.

The Nuclear Policy Forum members discuss a scenario where North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attacks South Korea, forcing the US to intervene.  Kim then threatens to detonate a nuclear bomb over the US mainland unless it withdraws from the war. The group concludes that the US would not risk having San Francisco destroyed to save Seoul.

During the inaugural meeting of the Nuclear Policy Forum in Seoul, politicians, scientists, and military personnel gathered to discuss South Korea's potential development of nuclear weapons. The group's chairman, academic Cheong Seong-chang, presented a suggested plan in which Seoul would withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) the next time North Korea tested a nuclear weapon. If within six months, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not agree to give up his nuclear weapons, South Korea would start building its own. The plan aims to reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, as Kim would be less likely to attack if he knew South Korea could strike back.

However, some experts, such as Jenny Town from the US-based think tank 38 North, argue that having a nuclear-armed South Korea would not necessarily make North Korea less adventurous. She points to the example of India and Pakistan, who have both become more aggressive since becoming nuclear-armed.

The idea of a nuclear-armed South Korea is not something that Washington supports. In 2016, then-President Donald Trump accused South Korea of free-riding and threatened to withdraw US troops from the region if Seoul did not pay for their stay. The fear instilled by those words has not lessened with time. An increasing number of South Koreans, aware that US promises are only as good as its next leader, now support building their own nuclear weapons. One forum member, Choi Ji-young, emphasized that the issue is both a problem and a responsibility.

At a local sauna in Seoul, people of all ages and backgrounds gathered to relax and indulge in beer and fried chicken. Amidst the soothing atmosphere, discussions about nuclear proliferation have become commonplace.

Koo Sung-wook, a 31-year-old who served in the military during a major crisis in 2010 when North Korea shelled a South Korean island, believes that South Korea should have control of its own defense. "The US is not going to use its nukes to defend us, so we should be in control of our own defense," he said.

Hong In-su, an 82-year-old who experienced the Korean War as a child, was previously anti-nuclear weapons but reluctantly believes they are now a necessary evil. "Other countries are developing theirs, so I don't see how we can go on without them. The world is changing," she said.

A young mother at the sauna expressed concern that Seoul's current relationship with the US could change at any moment and believes it's better to have nukes just in case. Another woman was torn over whether the US would defend South Korea and also thought it's better to have nuclear weapons as a precaution.

Overall, the sauna-goers agreed that in the face of great powers like North Korea and China, South Korea needs to be competitive and have nuclear weapons.

Washington is trying to reassure South Korea of its commitment to defend it, but such gestures are no longer working. South Korean politicians are growing increasingly wary of being kept in the dark about what would trigger the US president to push the nuclear button on their behalf. There is currently no requirement for the US president to even inform the South Korean president before doing so.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's recent remarks about South Korea going nuclear were seen as indirectly pressuring the US. Yang Uk, a defense analyst with the Seoul-based Asan Institute, claims that the US is so reluctant to discuss its nuclear policy with South Korea, yet South Korea would suffer the most in the event of a nuclear war on the peninsula.

Seoul is pushing for greater involvement in planning and executing nuclear use. This could mean having US nuclear weapons stationed in South Korea, a nuclear-sharing arrangement similar to Europe, or a joint nuclear-planning group. Jenny Town, from the US-based think tank 38 North, suggested that at the very least, a mandatory phone call should be built in between the US and South Korean presidents, so long as it is understood that the US president's decision is final.

The US is struggling to reassure South Korea of its "iron-clad" commitment to its defense, as Seoul seeks greater involvement in the planning and execution of nuclear use. President Moon Jae-in's comments about South Korea going nuclear were seen as indirect pressure on the US, which has been reluctant to discuss its nuclear policy with South Korea. Analysts warn that a potential South Korean nuclear armament would cause other countries to follow, creating a crack in the non-proliferation regime. However, at a local sauna in Seoul, almost everyone agreed that South Korea needs nukes to defend itself from North Korea and China. Some even believed that the US could pull out of its defense commitment, and it's better to have nukes just in case. Despite the potential consequences, the idea of going nuclear is now firmly planted in the South Korean psyche. Analysts say the South Korean public has probably not considered the consequences, and Hong In-su, an 82-year-old, was the only one at the sauna who seemed to grapple with the dangers ahead. She quoted a Korean proverb that roughly translates to "you fall in your own poop", saying she felt bad for the next generation.