Chinese President Xi Jinping announced on Wednesday that China would send an envoy to Ukraine for discussions on a potential "political settlement" to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This marks a shift from China's previous stance of avoiding involvement in conflicts between other nations, and may indicate a desire to establish itself as a significant player in global diplomacy. Earlier this year, China facilitated talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran that resulted in the restoration of diplomatic relations after a seven-year hiatus.

According to a recent phone call between Chinese President Xi and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Xi mentioned that a Chinese envoy (a former Chinese ambassador to Russia) would be visiting Ukraine and other countries to discuss the possibility of a political settlement. The government statement released after the call did not mention anything about Russia or the previous year's invasion of Ukraine, nor did it indicate whether the envoy would be visiting Moscow.

The Xi-Zelenskyy phone call was long anticipated after Beijing said it wanted to serve as a mediator in the war.

China is currently the only major government that maintains friendly relations with Moscow, and it holds significant economic leverage as the largest buyer of Russian oil and gas after the United States and its allies cut off most purchases. China views Moscow as a diplomatic partner in opposing U.S. domination of global affairs, and as a result, it has refused to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. China has also used its status as one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to deflect diplomatic attacks on Russia.

Zelenskyy earlier said he welcomed a Chinese offer to mediate.

The Xi government has been actively seeking a larger role in global diplomacy, as part of its campaign to restore China to what the ruling Communist Party considers its rightful position as a political and economic leader. This involves building an international order that aligns with Beijing's interests. This is a significant shift from China's previous approach, which involved avoiding involvement in other countries' conflicts and most international affairs while focusing on domestic economic development for several decades.

In March, Saudi Arabia and Iran made a surprise announcement that they would reopen embassies in each other's capitals following a seven-year break after talks in Beijing. China, as a big oil buyer, has maintained good relations with both countries. More recently, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang expressed the country's readiness to help facilitate peace talks between Israel and Palestine, indicating a growing interest in playing a role in regional conflicts. Wednesday's statement by China warned about the risks of nuclear war, which suggests that China may also be motivated by the growing danger of a more destructive conflict.

If China were to mediate between Ukraine and Russia, it would increase its presence in Eastern Europe, where Beijing has been trying to build ties with other governments. However, some European officials have expressed concern that China is attempting to gain leverage over the European Union by doing so. While China's efforts in this regard have faced criticism, some experts, such as Kimberly Marten, a political science professor at Barnard College in New York, doubt that China would be successful in playing a role as a peacemaker between Ukraine and Russia.

“I have a hard time believing that China can act as peacemaker,” she said, adding that Beijing has been “too close to Russia.”

China is currently the closest thing to a major ally that Russian President Vladimir Putin's government has, particularly after it became increasingly isolated from the West. In February 2022, ahead of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Xi and Putin issued a joint statement emphasizing their governments' "no limits friendship." Although China has attempted to maintain a neutral stance on the conflict, it has reiterated Russian justifications for the invasion, which suggests that it may be more inclined to support Russia's actions than to condemn them.

Xi Jinping was given a warm reception by Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow in March, indicating the close relationship between the two countries. Furthermore, the Chinese defense minister visited Russia in April, which suggests that the military ties between the two nations are also strengthening. To support its energy-hungry economy, China has increased its purchases of Russian oil and gas, which has helped Russia offset the revenue loss due to Western sanctions. In exchange, China is able to secure lower prices for these resources, although specific details about the terms of the trade have not been disclosed.

Marten said the Xi-Zelenskyy call was “kind of a slap at Russia, because Russia has been very keen to portray China as its ally.” She said the direct China-Ukraine contact “indicates China is taking at least a step away from Russia.”

Before the Russian invasion, China was Ukraine's largest trading partner, although their trade volume was smaller compared to that of China and Russia. In 2021, Ukraine announced plans for Chinese companies to construct trade-related infrastructure. After it became apparent that Xi Jinping would not attempt to prevent Putin's invasion, Zelenskyy's government became more ambivalent toward Beijing, but the relationship between the two sides has remained friendly. According to an official Ukrainian report of the call, China and Ukraine have had a conversation that will give a powerful impetus to the return, preservation, and development of their trade relationship at all levels.

China has promised not to provide arms to either side of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a pledge that would benefit Ukraine, which has received armaments from the US and European countries. The Chinese ambassador to France sparked controversy when he suggested that former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, may not be sovereign nations, which aligns with Putin's position of denying Ukraine's sovereignty. Beijing later clarified that the ambassador's remarks were his personal opinion and not official policy. Some experts speculate that Xi's call to Zelenskyy may have been arranged quickly to divert attention from the uproar caused by the Chinese ambassador's comments.