Beijing - China's decision to participate in international talks hosted by Saudi Arabia aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Ukraine indicates potential shifts in its approach but not a complete reversal of its support for Moscow, according to analysts.
While China had declined to join earlier talks in Denmark, it appears more comfortable joining the efforts in Saudi Arabia, despite Russia's absence and Ukraine pushing its own plan.
China has refrained from condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, instead offering its own peace plan. However, as the conflict prolongs, Beijing seems to be confronting some hard realities.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, stated, "Beijing has been gearing more toward peace efforts but it also knows that a peace initiative led by Beijing is unlikely to be embraced by the West at this point. Beijing will not want to be absent from other credible peace initiatives that are led by non-Western countries."
Peace envoy Li Hui is among the senior officials from around 40 countries gathering in Jeddah, as per China's foreign ministry statement on Friday. The talks aim to establish key principles for a future settlement to end the war in Ukraine.
This move on the global diplomatic stage by China comes at a time when President Xi Jinping is grappling with various internal issues, including the recent replacement of foreign minister Qin Gang and changes in the top brass of the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force. Additionally, China's economy is facing deepening challenges.
Despite being invited, China did not attend the talks in Copenhagen in June. However, it has maintained strong economic and diplomatic ties with Russia since the invasion, accusing Western forces led by the U.S. of prolonging the conflict through their support to Ukraine.
China's involvement in the Saudi talks was seen as a "considerable breakthrough" by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, as reported by Ukrainian media.
Shanghai-based international relations scholar Shen Dingli suggested that Russia is eventually "bound to be defeated," which is why China must seek international cooperation without hastening Russia's collapse. He also emphasized the importance of jointly promoting an early and proper political settlement to the crisis.
Singapore-based analyst Li Mingjiang noted that China's move enhances its global image while allowing it to fine-tune its positions. China aims to better understand other countries' stances and explore its own adaptability and maneuverability in the process.
As the conflict in Ukraine persists, some analysts sense growing concern among Chinese officials over its prolonged nature and the recent Russian bombing of Ukrainian grain ports, disrupting grain shipments from a major global supplier.
Geng Shuang, China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, expressed deep concern about the war's seemingly endless nature during a Security Council meeting on July 26.
Scholars and experts agree that the evolving situation poses complexities for Beijing's maneuvering, given the direct impact of the war on China's economic and political interests. Moritz Rudolf, a scholar at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, highlighted the challenges China faces in navigating the situation.