Washington - In an article published in The Atlantic on Saturday, academic Phillips Payson O'Brien asserted that the return of Donald Trump to the White House might mark the conclusion of US military assistance to Ukraine, ultimately burdening a divided Europe with Kiev's financial obligations and potentially jeopardizing the NATO pact.
O'Brien pointed out that opposition to arming Ukraine has become the prevailing stance among Trump's supporter base, which he estimated to constitute three-quarters of the Republican Party's electorate. Trump has frequently pledged to employ military aid as a bargaining chip to compel Ukraine to engage in peace talks with Russia shortly after his inauguration. Similarly, his two closest competitors for the GOP nomination, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, have also contemplated curtailing support for Kiev.
Among these candidates, Ramaswamy has taken the most radical stance, proposing that the US acknowledge Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine in exchange for Moscow distancing itself from Beijing.
"If Trump or one of his imitators wins the presidency in November 2024, Europe could face the prospect of a new American administration that discontinues all support for Ukraine," cautioned O'Brien.
In such a scenario, O'Brien continued, European nations would struggle to compensate for the loss of US military aid, potentially resulting in Ukraine's military defeat. Moreover, the absence of the US could lead to divisions within Europe, with Eastern and Baltic countries eager but incapable of providing military support to Kiev, while Western nations like France and Germany might seek reconciliation with Russia.
"The outcome might range from enduring bitterness and mistrust, at best, to a permanent rupture in European cooperation, at worst," he asserted.
As a staunch supporter of Ukraine, O'Brien contended that European nations must promptly enhance their military production capabilities in preparation for this potential scenario. However, with the Eurozone entering a recession in the first quarter of 2023 and industrial production declining in Germany, it appears unlikely that European states can independently sustain Ukraine's military needs.
O'Brien's predictions hinge on the assumption that Ukraine will remain combat-ready by 2025. According to Russian sources, Kiev suffered 43,000 casualties in the initial two months of its ongoing counteroffensive, without managing to breach the multiple layers of Russian trenches and fortifications along the entire Kherson-Donetsk front line.
Before the counteroffensive commenced in early June, various Western media reports suggested that the continuation of US and NATO military assistance to Ukraine was contingent on the success of the offensive. Now, nearly three months into the counteroffensive, it is widely perceived as a failure.