Estonia, a NATO member bordering Russia, views itself as a front-line state.The Estonian government has significantly supported Ukraine since Russia's invasion, contributing over 1% of its GDP to Ukraine's defense. Prime Minister Kaja Kallas believes if all NATO countries matched Estonia's contributions, Ukraine would succeed.
However, Ukraine currently faces severe shortages in artillery, ammunition, air defenses, and troops, struggling against Russia's heavy firepower and infantry assaults. When asked about Estonia's contingency plan if Ukraine loses, Kallas stated, "We have no Plan B for a Russian victory," emphasizing the focus on aiding Ukraine to repel the invasion.
She considers a Ukrainian victory achievable if Ukraine joins NATO, even if some territory remains contested.
Kallas, Estonia’s prime minister since 2021 and a former Soviet citizen, is among NATO's most hawkish leaders against Russia. Her stance has caused concern in the White House about potentially escalating the conflict.
Despite domestic discontent over tax hikes for defense spending, Kallas insists on the West recognizing the existential threat from Russia, which she accuses of conducting various hybrid attacks across the EU.
Hybrid attacks, such as the unsolved Nord Stream pipeline explosions and alleged Russian electronic interference in flights near Kaliningrad, create psychological and emotional tension without direct military engagement.
Estonia's security service highlighted incidents like false bomb threats in schools as examples of such tactics.
To deter potential Russian aggression, NATO has bolstered its presence on Europe's eastern flank since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The UK leads a 1,200-strong battle group in Tapa, northern Estonia, part of broader efforts to strengthen defenses.
Brigadier Giles Harris, commanding UK forces in Estonia, acknowledges that larger forces are necessary, noting plans to reinforce with brigade-scale units to deter even small-scale incursions.
Training exercises in Estonia are viewed as mission rehearsals for potential conflicts mirroring the ongoing war in Ukraine. Despite Ukraine’s current difficulties, Brigadier Harris remains confident that a Russian incursion into Estonia would be repelled successfully.