Mary Meng, a 37-year-old mother in Shanghai, works in a high-pressure job at a Chinese tech company. The demands of her work leave her so stressed and overworked that she can’t imagine having a second child. "The work pressure is such that you don't even have any time to spend with your child," she explains. "How can I think about taking care of two children? I have no idea." This sentiment is shared by many urban dwellers, but the situation is particularly critical in China, where a rapidly declining and aging population raises concerns among demographers about the impact of fast-paced, expensive city life on birth rates.

China faces a significant demographic challenge: the number of women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15 to 49, is projected to fall by more than two-thirds, dropping to fewer than 100 million by the end of the century. At a recent major political gathering, Chinese authorities announced plans to create a "birth-friendly society," with promises to implement measures long advocated by population experts, such as reducing childcare and education costs. However, despite these efforts, Beijing also intends to encourage more people to move to urban areas.

This urbanization policy is designed to boost housing demand, support the struggling property sector, and stimulate economic growth through increased productivity and consumption. Urban residents typically produce and purchase more high-value goods and services than their rural counterparts. Yet, the policy overlooks a fundamental demographic principle: in cities, people tend to have fewer children due to high housing costs, limited space, expensive education, and the demands of work.

China's infertility rates have also risen dramatically, from 2% in the 1980s to 18% today, compared to around 15% globally. Doctors attribute this increase to factors such as the stress associated with urban jobs and industrial pollution. Fertility rates in rural areas are slightly higher, at 1.54 compared to the national average of 1.3 in 2020. In Shanghai, the fertility rate in 2023 was just 0.6, significantly lower than the national average of 1.1.

Demographer Yi Fuxian from the University of Wisconsin-Madison argues that authorities are "foolishly" pushing young people into "the most birth-unfriendly big cities," which will only worsen the fertility decline and exacerbate the aging crisis. He notes that "the suppression of fertility rates by population density is a biological law."

This trend is particularly evident in East Asia, where countries like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which urbanized and industrialized rapidly after World War II, now have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Although China’s birth rates are also very low after decades of enforcing the one-child policy, there is still some room for change. China's urbanization rate, at 65%, is lower than Japan's or South Korea's, which stand at 80-90%, giving China some leeway. Demographers suggest that improving rural living standards by enhancing public services or liberalizing land rights would have a more sustainable impact on economic growth and could help improve birth rates.

Samir KC, a professor at the Asian Demographic Research Institute at Shanghai University, emphasizes that "the population size is always a multiplier" in the economy. To maintain a stable population, countries need a fertility rate of 2.1, meaning for every woman like Meng, who has only one child, another woman would need to have three. However, many young people in China, like 21-year-old Poppy Yu, who works long hours at a film production company in Beijing, are opting out of parenthood entirely. "I don’t have the money or energy," Yu says.

China's vision for a "birth-friendly society" includes reducing parenting and education costs, extending parental leave, improving maternity and pediatric care, and increasing child subsidies and tax deductions. While many countries offer similar incentives, those with successful birth policies, such as France or Sweden, also provide greater gender equality, stronger labor rights, and robust social welfare systems. According to Yun Zhou, a demographer at the University of Michigan, simply reducing childcare costs isn't enough and may even reinforce traditional family values that place domestic responsibilities on women.

Meng believes that no policy will be effective until people in China regain hope for a better financial future. "Now everyone thinks there is no prospect at all," she says. "No matter how hard you work, it is just survival."