Washington D.C: NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, which deliberately crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos in 2022, may have set the stage for an unprecedented event: the first human-made meteor shower, potentially lasting up to 100 years. Photo Credits: NASA

The DART spacecraft was launched to test asteroid deflection technology by crashing into Dimorphos at high velocity—6.1 kilometers per second. The mission aimed to assess whether such a kinetic impact could alter the orbit of an asteroid. The target was Dimorphos, a moonlet orbiting a larger asteroid, Didymos, neither of which pose a threat to Earth but serve as a suitable test case.

Impact Results and Debris Forecast
The collision, which released approximately 1 million kilograms of debris—enough to fill six or seven rail cars—successfully altered Dimorphos's orbital period by about 32 to 33 minutes. This debris, including rocks and dust, is expected to disperse into the solar system, with some fragments potentially reaching Earth and Mars within the next decade to several decades.

A new study, soon to be published in the Planetary Science Journal, suggests that the ejected material could create a visible meteor shower, dubbed the "Dimorphids." According to Eloy Peña Asensio, the lead author of the study, small debris could reach Earth’s atmosphere within ten years, while some fragments might arrive at Mars within seven years.

Predicting the Meteor Shower
The size of the debris ranges from sand-grain particles to fragments similar in size to smartphones. These particles are expected to disintegrate upon entry into Earth’s atmosphere due to intense friction, a process known as ablation. Consequently, they pose no risk of reaching Earth's surface.

Using data from LICIACube—a small satellite that observed the DART impact—and advanced simulations, the researchers mapped the potential trajectories and velocities of three million particles. The results indicate that while the likelihood of a significant meteor shower is considered low, if it does occur, it would be faint and unique, not coinciding with any known meteor showers. Peak activity might be observable from the southern hemisphere, primarily around May.

Future Observations
To further explore the aftermath of the DART mission, the European Space Agency’s Hera mission, scheduled for launch in October 2024, will arrive at the Dimorphos-Didymos system by late 2026. Hera aims to study the impact's effects on Dimorphos, including potential reshaping of the asteroid and the amount of momentum transferred.

This mission will provide valuable insights into the dynamics of asteroid collisions and the long-term behavior of space debris. By refining mass measurements and tracking meteor activity, scientists hope to better understand the potential for future meteor showers originating from such space missions.

The study underscores the significant impact of space missions on our understanding of asteroid deflection and the potential for ongoing space phenomena stemming from human activities.