Washington: A United States based foreign policy think tank has warned that 2026 could be a highly sensitive year for Pakistan, with growing risks of conflict involving both India and Afghanistan.
The warning comes from the Council on Foreign Relations, which included Pakistan and South Asia among the regions to watch closely in its latest global risk assessment.
According to the report, tensions between India and Pakistan remain fragile and could escalate if there is a major militant attack or a serious security incident. Analysts say that any attack blamed on groups operating from Pakistani territory could lead to a swift military response from India, raising the risk of wider confrontation.
The report also points to strained relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Cross border attacks, militant movement and disagreements over border control have already led to armed clashes in recent years. These unresolved issues could intensify further in 2026, especially if security conditions deteriorate on either side of the border.
Experts note that Pakistan is facing multiple pressures at the same time, including economic difficulties, internal security challenges and complex regional relationships. These factors, the report says, could limit Islamabad’s ability to manage sudden crises or prevent escalation.
While the think tank does not predict a full scale war, it warns that even limited military exchanges could have serious consequences for regional stability. It urges diplomatic engagement, confidence building measures and stronger counterterrorism efforts to reduce the risk of conflict.
The assessment reflects broader international concern about South Asia, a region where long standing disputes and nuclear armed neighbours make any escalation particularly dangerous.