The Russian government has urged caution against jumping to conclusions regarding the cause of the fatal crash of a passenger plane bound for Russia, which killed 38 people in Kazakhstan on Wednesday. While footage from the wreckage suggests possible shrapnel damage, and some aviation experts speculated that the Azerbaijan Airlines plane might have been hit by air defence systems over the Russian republic of Chechnya, Russian officials are calling for a careful, fact-based investigation.
The Embraer 190, en route from Baku to Grozny, was diverted across the Caspian Sea due to heavy fog and was heading for an emergency landing in western Kazakhstan when it crashed near the city of Aktau. The plane went down just 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) from the runway, bursting into flames upon impact. Among the 67 people on board, 29 survived the crash. Azerbaijan declared a national day of mourning for the victims on Thursday, with President Ilham Aliyev expressing his profound grief, calling it a "tremendous sorrow" for the Azerbaijani people.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov addressed the speculation surrounding the incident, urging that no theories be proposed before the official investigation is concluded. "It would be wrong to make any assumptions before we have the investigation's findings. No one should do this," Peskov said.
The crash has raised questions about the aircraft's sudden deviation from its intended flight path. A surviving passenger recounted to Russian TV that the pilot had attempted to land twice in dense fog over Grozny before an explosion was heard and part of the plane's fuselage was damaged. The flight was then rerouted to Aktau, but the plane crashed shortly before reaching the runway.
Kazakh authorities have recovered the flight data recorder, and an investigation is underway. Early reports from Russian state-controlled media speculated that a bird strike might have caused the crash, but aviation experts like Richard Aboulafia have cast doubt on this, stating that such an event would not typically result in a plane veering significantly off course.
Risk advisory analyst Justin Crump suggested that the damage pattern on the aircraft pointed towards a possible missile strike, potentially from Russian air defences operating in the region. He noted the "shrapnel damage" observed, which he believes may have been consistent with a missile detonation near the rear of the aircraft.
The crash site lies near a region recently targeted by Ukrainian drone strikes, further adding to the uncertainty surrounding the cause. However, Kazakhstan's Senate leader, Maulen Ashimbayev, emphasized that the cause of the crash remains undetermined, and reassured the public that all relevant information would be made available once the investigation is completed.
Most of the passengers were Azerbaijani nationals, with some also from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan. Video footage from the scene showed survivors emerging from the wreckage, some visibly injured. Several injured passengers were transported to nearby hospitals, and on Thursday, Azerbaijan’s Azertac news agency reported that seven survivors were well enough to return to Baku.
Azerbaijan Airlines confirmed that the plane had undergone a full servicing in October and was free from any technical issues. The aircraft, manufactured by Brazilian company Embraer, has a strong safety record and is known for its reliability in the aviation industry.