As Donald Trump prepares to assume office as President, his ambitious promise to broker a peace deal in the Ukraine war is confronting the harsh realities of a conflict that remains deeply entrenched. With both Moscow and Kyiv seeking battlefield gains to strengthen their negotiating positions, peace remains elusive.
The war, now in its third year, has seen Russian forces steadily advancing through Ukrainian defenses, consolidating control over four regions annexed by Moscow in 2022—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. Ukraine, despite efforts to reclaim territory and launch incursions into Russia’s Kursk region, faces significant manpower shortages and desertions.
Meanwhile, Kyiv has shifted its strategy to demand robust security guarantees from Western allies rather than insisting on Russia's full withdrawal from occupied territories as a precondition for peace talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for Western peacekeepers, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive agreement rather than a temporary truce.
Trump, who initially vowed to settle the war in 24 hours, recently extended his timeline to six months. His nominee for Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, has suggested that a deal could be brokered within 100 days.
Kellogg dismissed European concerns about reduced U.S. support for Kyiv, stating Trump’s goal is to “save Ukraine and its sovereignty.” Former Ukraine envoy Kurt Volker noted that Trump’s strategy would likely involve warning Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt hostilities or face intensified U.S. military and financial support for Ukraine.
However, analysts caution that Putin, buoyed by battlefield advances and a resilient Russian economy despite sanctions, is unlikely to retreat.
Putin has signaled openness to negotiations but insists any peace deal must respect “realities on the ground,” effectively legitimizing Russia’s land gains. Moscow also demands Ukraine renounce its NATO aspirations and for Western sanctions to be lifted.
Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector have added economic pressure. Despite nearly 4% growth last year fueled by military spending, the Russian economy is grappling with inflation, labor shortages, and a weakening ruble.
As both sides adopt hardline positions, the prospect of successful negotiations remains slim. Analysts warn that failed talks could escalate tensions, with Russia viewing any Western military aid to Ukraine as hostile.
Political observers suggest that Moscow’s strategy hinges on exhausting Ukraine’s resources and forcing concessions. Putin’s demand for Ukraine’s “demilitarization” includes significant reductions in its armed forces and Western guarantees against rearmament.
While Trump’s proposed peace deal seeks to end hostilities, experts emphasize the complexities of bridging the deep divides between Moscow and Kyiv. With both sides prioritizing military objectives over compromise, the path to peace remains fraught with uncertainty.
As the international community watches closely, Trump’s ability to deliver on his promise will depend on navigating a minefield of geopolitical and military challenges.