A powerful hailstorm has struck Russia’s Stavropol region—its third-largest wheat-producing area—causing damage to grain crops, local authorities confirmed Tuesday. The storm comes as erratic weather patterns sweep across Russia, bringing unseasonal snow, plunging temperatures, and concern for the agricultural sector.

Stavropol contributed around 8% to Russia’s total wheat harvest in 2024, which reached 82.6 million metric tons. This year’s crops have already faced a tough start, with early spring frosts and widespread drought affecting many of the country’s main grain belts.

Agricultural analysts are keeping a close eye on developments, adjusting forecasts as episodes of extreme weather—like hail, cold snaps, and frosts—continue to unfold in the world’s largest wheat-exporting nation.

“Our fields have suffered damage. Experts are currently evaluating the situation. We’ll determine next steps after their assessment,” Stavropol Governor Vladimir Vladimirov posted on Telegram.

This week, heavy snowstorms blanketed much of European Russia following a warmer-than-usual winter. Moscow is expected to see snow depths reach up to 20 centimeters (9 inches) by April 9, while snow was also reported in Crimea and the southern Krasnodar region.

In Krasnodar, Russia’s top grain-producing area, where temperatures soared above 20°C (68°F) just weeks ago, local emergency officials issued frost warnings, signaling the risk of sudden agricultural losses.

Threat of Frost to Crops

"With surface frosts returning, there’s a heightened danger to crops—especially flowering and fruit-bearing plants, as well as heat-sensitive varieties," warned the regional emergencies ministry.

Despite concerns, the agriculture ministry’s analytical center reported that national crop loss remained modest—less than 3% overall—despite earlier warnings that over a third of winter crops were in poor shape heading into the season.

According to Deputy Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin, recent precipitation in the form of snow and rain has helped restore moisture levels in the soil, offering a better outlook for spring growth. “There have been no significant losses so far, and crops are progressing as expected. The situation remains generally stable,” he told local media.

Still, the ministry signaled in an April 7 statement that if next year’s harvest falls short of expectations, it may resort to “non-tariff measures”—widely understood as potential export restrictions.

For now, most forecasts put Russia’s 2025 grain harvest near 130 million tons, not including territories under Russian control in Eastern Ukraine. However, the Russian Grain Union—a vocal critic of some government agricultural policies—has offered a more conservative estimate of 125 million tons, in line with last year’s output excluding disputed regions.

“If we face a worst-case scenario like the catastrophic 2010 drought, output could drop by as much as 30% from current projections,” warned Grain Union chief Arkady Zlochevsky.