Beneath the Southern Cross and the thundering hooves of rodeo bulls, Australians are getting ready to vote in a federal election that feels more global than local. With beer in hand and 'chips on a stick' in the other, spectators at a country rodeo might seem far removed from world politics. But in reality, international turmoil and the return of Donald Trump are casting long shadows across Australia’s political arena.

As voters prepare to head to the polls on May 3, the campaign has taken a sharp turn from traditional domestic concerns – like housing, healthcare, and the cost of living – to questions of national identity and global alliances. Analysts say the unpredictable nature of a second Trump presidency is forcing Australian leaders to confront how dependent the country remains on the United States.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, whose Labor Party is now leading in the polls, has shifted his campaign into high gear, visiting six states in recent days. A YouGov poll now places Labor at 54% of the two-party preferred vote, compared to 47% for the opposition Coalition. This turnaround comes after months of trailing in public support.

“The looming figure of Trump is overshadowing the domestic campaign but also forcing Australia’s leaders to do something they haven’t had to do in a long time – examine Australia’s links to the US,” says Amy Remeikis of the Australia Institute.

With China ramping up its military presence in the Pacific, Australia has reinforced its defence ties with Washington through alliances like AUKUS and the Five Eyes intelligence network. But Trump’s recent tariff announcements – which do not exempt Australia – have shaken Canberra’s confidence in the reliability of its closest ally. Albanese, reflecting widespread national sentiment, called the move “not the act of a friend.”

While Trump’s return has sparked concern among 60% of Australians, according to a *Sydney Morning Herald* poll, some believe Australia should still back the U.S. in countering geopolitical threats. “We should welcome and support American measures to counter Beijing’s malign actions,” says Justin Bassi of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton, once vocal about his compatibility with Trump, has since distanced himself from earlier praise. His alignment with Trumpian policies – including calls for public sector cuts and party slogans reminiscent of “Make America Great Again” – has raised eyebrows among voters more interested in leaders who can stand up to, rather than appease, a volatile U.S. administration.

Political experts say that Trump’s disruptive approach may paradoxically be bolstering support for Albanese. “You’re seeing a rallying around the current Labor government,” says Professor Gordon Flake from the Perth USAsia Centre. “Six months ago their re-election seemed unlikely; today, it seems more likely than not.”

Regardless of the election outcome, both Albanese and Dutton face a difficult path ahead: keeping Australia’s strategic interests intact while navigating an increasingly uncertain world order.

Back at the rodeo, as broncos buck and flags of global allies fly high, Australians are watching not just the action in the ring, but the high-stakes political show unfolding around them. Whoever wins will have to hold on tightly – just like the cowboys in the arena – as they ride out the geopolitical storm.