New Delhi: India and China are inching toward rapprochement, a move less rooted in trust than in sheer necessity. In today’s multipolar order, permanent friendships and eternal rivalries have become illusions, replaced by shifting alliances shaped by pragmatism.
A Reset in Motion
Since the Kazan Summit of October 2024, quiet but steady efforts have been underway to restore communication channels between New Delhi and Beijing. This year has already witnessed a sharp uptick in exchanges across governments, think tanks, academia and even media forums. Progress has emerged in areas once frozen: visa relaxations, the resumption of pilgrimages, cultural linkages and soon, the restoration of direct flights. Trade and economic dialogues are also back on the table.
Yet, the process remains layered with caution. Beijing’s continued support for Islamabad during Operation Sindoor, along with restrictions on rare earth magnets, tunnel-boring equipment and technical experts, are reminders that deep mistrust endures. Still, recent tariff disputes and supply-chain pressures have given urgency to talks, punctuated by the visit of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Delhi. The range of agreements discussed suggests momentum, though suspicion continues to hover over every step.
The Ever-Present Schism
The shadow of Galwan 2020 continues to hang heavy. That clash and the years-long standoff that followed severely eroded confidence, casting doubt over earlier mechanisms designed to maintain peace at the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Despite buffer zones and revised patrol protocols, disengagement has not evolved into genuine de-escalation. Both armies continue to station nearly 60,000 troops each along the frontier, making the calm tenuous at best.
The structural contradictions are no less serious. While Beijing advocates global multipolarity, it resists a multipolar Asia where India seeks a greater voice. China’s naval footprint in the Indian Ocean has expanded steadily, while its firm embrace of Pakistan remains a constant irritant. Tensions also stretch across trade, the South China Sea, Taiwan, Tibet and South Asian geopolitics. Meanwhile, India has begun marketing weapons to Southeast Asia, deepening the competition.
Why Push Ahead?
For all their differences, geography remains unalterable. With a combined population nearing three billion, India and China cannot afford to ignore one another. Yet, decades of mutual ignorance socially and strategically have kept the relationship underdeveloped.
China holds lessons in urban planning, digital infrastructure, renewable energy and advanced technologies such as AI. Its deep capital base and unmatched manufacturing strength contrast with India’s expansive market, stability and demographic advantage. If even a modest economic partnership materialises, it could reshape trade and growth patterns across Asia.
Unlike grand projects such as the BRI, GSI, GDI or BCIM corridor, which have stalled under the weight of geopolitics, sectoral cooperation in tourism, agriculture, consumer goods and light manufacturing could deliver quick, low-risk returns. With global growth slowing, India’s scale and China’s resources are natural complements. Practical, commercially driven ties may not grab headlines, but they could provide the foundation for long-term strategic stability.
No Permanent Friends, Only Interests
India’s trajectory is clear already the world’s most populous nation, the fourth-strongest military, and poised to become the third-largest economy. In such a multipolar world, alliances are transient and national interest is supreme. For New Delhi, this means pragmatic diplomacy: partnerships where possible, deterrence where necessary.
Fluid coalitions, hedging strategies and creative alignments will increasingly define the Asian landscape. Within this context, the current thaw with Beijing is a necessity-driven experiment, not a trust-based embrace. The much-discussed “Trump factor” may influence calculations at the margins, but the central reality is India’s determination to pursue convergence with China wherever it advances its interests while simultaneously reinforcing its own defence posture.
The rapprochement may be quickening, but both capitals know the relationship remains fragile. India and China may walk together for now, but always with eyes wide open.