The grain harvest in Russia’s leading crop-producing region, Rostov, faces serious setbacks due to ongoing weather extremes, according to local agricultural leaders. Unseasonably high temperatures and persistent drought conditions are expected to reduce yields significantly in the coming months, prompting the regional government to declare a state of agricultural emergency.

On May 19, Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar issued an official decree enacting emergency measures for the farming sector in response to recent spring frosts. The declaration permits affected farmers to apply for financial compensation. This move follows a sharp 76% rise in weather-related insurance payouts to Russian farmers in 2024, highlighting the growing impact of climate variability on the country’s agriculture.

Anatoly Kolchik, head of the Rostov branch of the Russian Grain Union, expressed concerns that both winter and spring crops have been hit hard. According to him, the dry conditions are so severe that crops planted in the spring are unlikely to mature properly due to a lack of moisture in deeper soil layers. “They simply won’t have enough time or resources to reach full development,” Kolchik told Vedomosti, stressing that only the upper soil layers retain any usable moisture.

Independent analysts echo these concerns. Andrei Sizov of the Sovecon consultancy warned that, while recent rainfall has brought some relief, it has not been enough to reverse the damage. He noted that expected yields remain below average for the region, underscoring the fragility of this year’s harvest outlook. The lack of sustained rainfall continues to pose the most significant threat to crop productivity in Rostov.

This marks the third instance this season where a Russian grain-producing region has declared an emergency due to extreme weather, following similar declarations in Voronezh and Belgorod after late spring frosts. In 2023, Rostov experienced a 22% decline in overall grain output, and wheat production dropped a staggering 38%, also due to frost and drought. Nationally, Russia’s total grain harvest fell nearly 14% in 2024, despite its status as the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Early forecasts this February predicted a rebound in Rostov’s harvest, estimating output at 13.7 million metric tons—20% higher than the previous year. However, recent developments have cast doubt on that projection. Rostov’s First Deputy Agriculture Minister Olga Gorbaneva described the current situation as “tense” and said the sector is under dual pressure from adverse weather and rising costs. She revealed that farm profitability halved in 2024, dropping from 16% to 8%, while production costs soared by 35%—far outpacing the 13% increase in revenue. Meanwhile, Russia’s national Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut offered a more tempered view, stating that frost damage in May was only around 10% of last year's levels—but warned that inadequate soil moisture remains a looming concern.