The Pentagon has revealed that recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure have significantly delayed the country's nuclear capabilities, potentially setting the program back by up to two years. The assessment comes after coordinated military action on June 22, which targeted key Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed on July 2 that the strikes caused substantial damage to Iran’s enrichment operations. Intelligence estimates now suggest that Iran’s ability to produce weapons-grade uranium has been degraded by one to two years, with most assessments leaning toward the longer delay.
This revised estimate marks a shift from earlier reports that suggested a more limited disruption. A prior assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency had estimated a setback of only a few months. However, further analysis and satellite imagery of the impacted sites have led to a more optimistic view from the U.S. Department of Defense.
In contrast, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) remains more cautious. Director General Rafael Grossi has expressed concerns that Iran might still be capable of resuming enriched uranium production within months. He noted that there was no significant radiation detected at the targeted facilities, raising the possibility that sensitive materials may have been relocated prior to the strikes.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi acknowledged severe damage at the Fordow facility but said the government was still evaluating the full scope of the impact. Meanwhile, a new CIA report appears to support the Pentagon’s latest findings, describing the damage as “severe and long-lasting” and potentially causing a multi-year disruption to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
In response to the attacks, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA. The move includes halting inspections and other verification mechanisms outlined in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), citing national security concerns and the need to protect nuclear scientists and sites.
Despite withdrawing cooperation with the IAEA, Iran has signaled that it remains open to diplomatic engagement, though no immediate talks are scheduled. The suspension has drawn criticism from Western governments, who have called on Tehran to reinstate inspections and ensure transparency.
Israel has also weighed in, urging European nations to support the reimposition of United Nations sanctions through the “snapback” mechanism established under the 2015 nuclear agreement.
As global powers evaluate the aftermath of the strikes, concerns remain about Iran’s potential to reconstitute its nuclear program. Analysts warn that without international oversight, the timeline for nuclear advancement could shift rapidly depending on Iran’s intentions and technical capabilities.
The situation continues to evolve, with regional tensions high and the future of diplomatic negotiations uncertain. The next steps from Iran, the IAEA, and Western governments will be critical in determining whether the setback to Iran’s nuclear program results in a longer-term pause or merely a temporary delay.