Singapore: As of October 15, 2025, global oil prices have fallen, with Brent crude trading at $62.18 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $58.54 per barrel, marking their lowest levels in five months. The decline comes amid concerns over a potential global supply surplus and escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.

Analysts point to a warning from the International Energy Agency, which has forecasted a possible surplus of up to four million barrels per day in 2026. This oversupply is driven by increased production from OPEC+ and other oil producers, combined with slower-than-expected demand.

Adding to market uncertainty, trade relations between the U.S. and China have deteriorated further, with both nations imposing additional fees on ships carrying cargo between their ports. The move increases shipping costs and disrupts freight flows, potentially impacting economic activity.

Investor sentiment is also being shaped by expectations of rising U.S. crude inventories. Early estimates suggest a 200,000-barrel increase in crude stocks for the week ending October 10, with official weekly data from the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected later in the week.

Overall, the oil market is under pressure from both supply-side concerns and geopolitical tensions, with prices likely to remain sensitive to developments in global trade relations and production trends.