Taipei: Taiwan has expressed deep apprehension over reports that China’s forthcoming economic development blueprint may include its frontline islands, such as Kinmen, which lie perilously close to the Chinese mainland. As Beijing prepares to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan, Taiwanese officials fear that what appears to be an economic initiative could conceal a broader strategic ambition to expand China’s jurisdictional influence under the guise of regional development.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is expected to review the outlines of its 15th Five-Year Plan during a key policy meeting this week, ahead of the plan’s official release in 2026. The plan, a roadmap that sets China’s social and economic priorities, could reportedly incorporate measures to “enhance regional integration” between the Chinese coastal provinces and nearby islands a phrase that Taiwanese analysts interpret as a veiled reference to Kinmen and other territories under Taiwan’s control.
While Beijing has long described such economic moves as part of its “peaceful reunification” strategy, officials in Taipei believe the approach signals a new phase of psychological and administrative warfare. By leveraging trade, infrastructure, and people-to-people exchanges, China could gradually normalize its presence and influence over areas that symbolically and strategically belong to Taiwan.
Kinmen, situated just a few kilometers from the Chinese city of Xiamen, has historically occupied a delicate position in cross-strait relations. Despite its political allegiance to Taiwan, Kinmen’s economy and daily life are intertwined with the Chinese mainland residents travel to Xiamen for shopping, healthcare, and business, while China supplies the island with water and electricity.
For Taipei, this interdependence has become a growing vulnerability. Officials worry that China might exploit these connections by offering development incentives or infrastructure projects aimed at integrating Kinmen more closely with the mainland. A proposed bridge linking Xiamen and Kinmen a plan long promoted by Beijing is seen by Taiwanese authorities as particularly troubling, since it could physically and symbolically bind the island to China’s administrative orbit.
Taiwanese officials argue that China’s economic overtures are not mere goodwill gestures but a subtle attempt to erode sovereignty. One senior government adviser reportedly cautioned that any mention of Kinmen in China’s new development plan “would be a red flag a step toward economic annexation disguised as cooperation.”
The concerns have been amplified by a series of developments in recent months, including the opening of a new air route from Xiamen that flies dangerously close to Kinmen’s airspace. Additionally, the construction of a new airport in Xiamen, just three kilometers from the island, has further heightened security anxieties in Taipei.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council has declined to comment publicly until Beijing releases the full details of its five-year plan. However, lawmakers and analysts across party lines have urged vigilance. “Economic links must never compromise sovereignty,” said Chen Yu-jen, a legislator representing Kinmen, stressing that the island’s identity and security remain firmly under the Republic of China’s jurisdiction.
Military analysts in Taipei note that while Beijing continues to pressure Taiwan militarily through frequent air and naval incursions, it is simultaneously refining a parallel strategy economic and infrastructural assimilation. This “dual-track” approach, they warn, could gradually reshape perceptions of control without a single shot being fired.
The issue carries implications far beyond Kinmen. If China successfully embeds Taiwan’s outlying territories into its national development narrative, it could set a precedent for other areas and normalize Beijing’s claims to Taiwan itself. Such moves would also test the responses of regional powers, including the United States and Japan, both of which have pledged to support Taiwan’s self-governance and security.
Analysts say that Beijing’s approach mirrors tactics used elsewhere particularly in the South China Sea where economic and infrastructural projects have been followed by administrative and military consolidation. “This is how China expands its influence not only through might, but through maps, plans, and bridges,” observed one regional expert.
Taipei is now awaiting the official publication of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan to see whether Kinmen or other frontline islands are explicitly referenced. Even without direct mention, Taiwan’s security agencies are expected to intensify surveillance of cross-strait projects and economic overtures linked to Fujian province.
For Taiwan, the coming months could reveal whether Beijing’s economic blueprint is a genuine invitation to shared prosperity or another chapter in its long-term campaign to redefine the geography of sovereignty across the Taiwan Strait.