Zurich: The Swiss government has modestly increased its economic growth forecast for 2026, buoyed by a preliminary agreement with the United States to reduce import tariffs on Swiss goods. The government’s panel of economic experts now projects a 1.1% expansion for the Swiss economy next year, up from the 0.9% predicted in October.
The agreement reached in November seeks to lower U.S. tariffs on Swiss products from 39% to 15%, providing exporters with greater certainty and easing the impact of trade barriers. While the revised forecast is a positive signal, it still represents a slowdown from the expected 1.4% growth in 2025.
Looking further ahead, the government’s first outlook for 2027 anticipates an acceleration to 1.7% growth, assuming international tariffs remain at current levels. Domestic demand is expected to continue driving the Swiss economy, although foreign trade is projected to offer moderate additional support.
Authorities cautioned that risks remain elevated. Global economic and trade uncertainties persist, and the Swiss franc continues to be highly valued, posing challenges for exporters. Inflation is expected to remain subdued at 0.2% in both 2025 and 2026, rising slightly to 0.5% in 2027, while unemployment is forecast to increase to 3.1% next year before easing to 2.9% in 2027.
The updated government forecast aligns closely with projections from the KOF Institute at ETH Zurich, which also revised its 2026 and 2027 growth outlooks upward. KOF highlighted potential headwinds, including delays in expanded fiscal spending in Germany and a slowdown in the U.S. due to softening consumer sentiment and a weaker labor market. The institute also noted that the U.S.-Switzerland tariff reduction remains a mutual declaration of intent rather than a legally binding agreement.
The government emphasized that while the U.S. trade agreement provides optimism for exporters, continued vigilance is needed in the face of global economic uncertainties and potential policy shifts.