Beijing: African nations are now sending more money back to China in debt repayments than they are receiving in new loans, marking a major shift in their financial relationship with Beijing, according to new data analysed by researchers.
A study by ONE Data shows that China’s lending to low and middle income countries has dropped sharply in recent years, while repayments have continued to rise. This means that instead of receiving net support, many African governments are now experiencing a net outflow of money to China.
Between 2015 and 2019, African countries received about 30 billion dollars more from China than they paid back. But from 2020 to 2024, this situation reversed, with African states sending an estimated 22 billion dollars more to China than they received in new loans. This represents a swing of more than 50 billion dollars in less than a decade.
Experts say this change reflects China’s decision to slow down large scale lending for infrastructure projects, which had expanded rapidly during the height of the Belt and Road initiative. Chinese banks have become more cautious due to economic pressures at home and concerns about rising debt risks in borrowing countries.
At the same time, many African nations are struggling with heavy debt burdens and weaker currencies, making repayments more expensive. As a result, a larger share of government revenue is being used to service foreign loans, leaving less money for health, education and development projects.
The report also shows that multilateral lenders such as the World Bank and African Development Bank have become the main sources of net development finance for Africa, as China’s role as a top lender has declined.
Analysts say the trend could reshape Africa’s financial future. Some argue that reduced dependence on Chinese loans may push governments to strengthen domestic revenue systems and manage borrowing more carefully. Others warn that lower access to cheap loans could slow infrastructure growth in poorer countries.
China has said it remains committed to cooperation with Africa, but recent lending has focused more on smaller projects and trade partnerships rather than large government backed loans.
Researchers expect the gap between repayments and new lending to widen further once full data for 2025 becomes available, as aid flows fall and borrowing remains limited.
The shift highlights a new phase in China Africa relations, moving from an era of heavy lending to one where debt management and repayment now play a central role.