New Delhi: Tata Group-owned Air India Express is poised to achieve its first operating profit since privatization, according to internal forecasts shared with employees — a notable development for the India aviation sector and a potential turning point for the airline’s financial trajectory. The projection reflects strategic gains in capacity, market share and operational efficiency as the carrier works to strengthen its foothold in a fiercely competitive market.

Company executives presented the optimistic outlook during a town hall meeting at the airline’s Gurugram headquarters, outlining that the anticipated operating profit is expected in the second half of the financial year ending March 2026. If realized, it would mark the first time Air India Express has returned to profitability from core operations revenue minus day-to-day costs such as fuel, staff and maintenance since being acquired by the Tata Group in 2022.

According to senior management, the projected operating profit stems from a combination of disciplined cost management, improved unit economics and stronger execution across the business. The airline has nearly doubled its capacity and tripled its market share since privatization, positioning itself as a “value carrier” that bridges the experience between traditional low-cost and full-service models.

Despite broader challenges facing Indian aviation such as high fuel prices, supply chain disruptions and regulatory pressures the carrier’s focused commercial strategy has begun to show results. Air India Express also reported some of the highest on-time performance figures in India in recent months, bolstering customer satisfaction as demand remains robust.

The airline is currently operating more than 100 narrow-body jets, including Boeing 737 MAX and Airbus A320 family aircraft, and has embarked on an ambitious growth trajectory. Executives reaffirmed plans to more than double the fleet to over 200 aircraft in the next four to five years, with longer-term aspirations of expanding to around 300 planes and capturing roughly 25% of the market by FY2030-31.

To support this expansion and improve the passenger experience, Air India Express is investing over $70 million in refurbishing cabin interiors and modernizing onboard products, a move meant to elevate its competitive edge and appeal to a broader customer base.

The potential operating profit at Air India Express comes against a backdrop of mixed financial results within the Air India Group. Official data for the previous fiscal year showed that Air India and its low-cost arm together recorded significant losses, a reflection of the costs associated with restructuring, integration and external pressures such as restrictions on airspace access.

While the larger group continues to work toward overall profitability, analysts view Air India Express’s projected operating profit as a key milestone that could provide momentum for broader financial health. The success of the low-cost unit would help balance ongoing losses at the full-service carrier and underscore the effectiveness of the turnaround strategy pursued by Tata Group leadership.

Air India Express’s measured progress is watched closely by investors and aviation analysts, especially as India’s aviation market continues to evolve rapidly. With forecasts suggesting Indian carriers will require thousands of new aircraft over the next decade and passenger numbers continuing to rise, the airline’s operational improvements and expansion plans position it to play a larger role in shaping the region’s future air travel landscape.

If Air India Express achieves its first post-privatization operating profit, it would not only validate management’s commercial strategy but also signal confidence in the long-term viability of Tata Group’s broader aviation ambitions spanning both low-cost and full-service segments at a time when Indian airlines are redefining their roles in a fiercely competitive global industry.