Taipei: Taiwan has warned that China’s growing military and coast guard activities around the island could gradually create a new status quo in the region, raising concerns that repeated pressure from Beijing may eventually become accepted as normal.
Taiwanese officials say China is using military aircraft, naval ships and coast guard vessels to increase its presence around Taiwan. While many of these activities do not lead to direct conflict, Taipei fears that their growing frequency could slowly change the security situation in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters.
Kuan Bi ling, head of Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council, said China was using different methods to increase pressure without starting an open war. She warned that Beijing’s actions could create new realities at sea if the international community becomes used to seeing Chinese vessels operating closer to Taiwan.
The concern has increased following recent Chinese coast guard operations east of Taiwan. On July 4, China sent coast guard vessels to patrol waters on the eastern side of the island. Taiwan rejected Beijing’s claims of authority in the area and sent its own vessels to watch the Chinese ships.
The location of the Chinese patrol raised particular concern because Taiwan’s eastern waters have traditionally been considered less exposed to direct pressure from mainland China. They are also important for commercial shipping and Taiwan’s defence planning. A regular Chinese presence in these waters could place additional pressure on Taiwan and force its authorities to use more resources for constant monitoring.
Military activity in the wider region has also increased. Taiwanese defence officials recently reported a rise in Chinese naval movements during the summer exercise period. Taiwan said several Chinese naval formations were operating in the Western Pacific and that more than 110 Chinese military and coast guard ships had been observed across the wider region during a recent period of increased activity.
Taiwanese officials are also closely watching military cooperation between China and Russia. The growing movement of naval forces across the region has added to concerns that Taiwan could face pressure from different directions during a future crisis.
In response, Taiwan has increased its defence preparations. A recent national exercise tested how the government and military would respond to several serious emergencies happening at the same time. The exercise included scenarios involving a Chinese blockade, military invasion, sabotage, cyber attacks, disinformation and a major natural disaster.
More than 370 government and military officials took part in the exercise. The drills examined communication systems, the movement of essential supplies, drone defence and the ability of different agencies to continue working during a national emergency.
Taiwanese officials have said these preparations should not be seen as an attempt to provoke China. Senior security official Lin Fei fan said Taiwan was strengthening its ability to protect society because of the increasing pressure from Beijing. He said stronger military and civilian preparedness could help prevent conflict by showing that Taiwan was ready to respond to a crisis.
The main concern for Taipei is that China may be trying to change the situation gradually instead of through one dramatic military action. If Chinese aircraft and vessels repeatedly operate closer to Taiwan, commercial ships and other countries may eventually begin adjusting their behaviour to this increased Chinese presence.
Such changes could affect shipping routes, insurance costs and the daily work of Taiwan’s military and coast guard personnel. Taiwan would also have to spend more money and resources to track Chinese activities and respond whenever ships or aircraft approach sensitive areas.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and says the island’s future should be decided by its people.
The latest developments show that tensions are increasingly focused on a slow and continuous struggle over presence, control and accepted behaviour. For Taiwan, the danger is that small changes could build over time until a completely different security situation becomes established.
Taipei is therefore calling greater attention to China’s activities before they become widely accepted as routine. Taiwanese officials believe that maintaining international awareness is important because the balance in the Taiwan Strait could change gradually, even without a single event that clearly marks the beginning of a major crisis.
As Chinese military and coast guard activity continues, Taiwan is expected to strengthen its surveillance, defence readiness and civilian emergency planning. The island’s leaders say the aim is to protect peace. Still, they also warn that peace cannot be maintained if constant pressure is allowed to create a new reality without resistance or international attention.