Seoul: South Korea has warned that North Korea may have a much larger nuclear arsenal than the figure recently given by US President Donald Trump, raising fresh questions about the scale of Pyongyang’s weapons programme and the challenges facing any future talks between Washington and Pyongyang.
South Korean Defence Minister Ahn Gyu back told lawmakers on Thursday that North Korea is generally estimated to possess between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads. The figure is significantly higher than the 57 nuclear weapons Trump said North Korea has a day earlier.
However, Ahn made clear that the higher estimate should not be treated as a confirmed count. He said the 80 to 120 figure was based on estimates from private research organisations and that the South Korean military cannot independently verify the exact number of nuclear warheads held by North Korea.
The difference between the two estimates highlights one of the biggest problems in understanding North Korea’s nuclear programme. Pyongyang does not provide reliable information about the size of its arsenal, and outside governments and research groups have to calculate its capabilities using satellite images, information about nuclear material production and assessments of its weapons programme.
Recent international estimates also vary considerably. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute raised its estimate of North Korea’s assembled nuclear warheads to about 60 in its 2026 assessment. It also estimated that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to make as many as 90 nuclear weapons. The institute warned that there is considerable uncertainty because of the secrecy surrounding the North Korean programme.
A separate assessment published by 38 North in July estimated that North Korea could have between 60 and 100 nuclear weapons. It also said Pyongyang may have the ability to produce enough highly enriched uranium and plutonium for several additional weapons every year.
These assessments suggest that Trump's figure of 57 is not completely outside the range of independent estimates for assembled weapons. At the same time, South Korea's higher figure reflects concerns that North Korea may have continued expanding its programme faster than some earlier estimates suggested.
The distinction between assembled weapons and available nuclear material is particularly important. Having enough material to produce a certain number of weapons does not necessarily mean that all those weapons have already been built, tested or placed on missiles. North Korea's actual number of operational nuclear weapons therefore remains difficult to establish.
The latest debate comes at a sensitive time for relations between North Korea, South Korea and the United States. Trump said on Wednesday that he planned to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un later this year. He also said he believed his personal relationship with Kim remained good and expressed confidence that another meeting could take place.
Trump's comments came shortly after he ordered a reduction in US participation in joint military exercises with South Korea. The decision was seen as a possible attempt to create a more favourable atmosphere for diplomacy with Pyongyang.
North Korea, however, has not responded with the level of enthusiasm that Washington may have expected. Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader's sister and an important voice on foreign policy, criticised the joint military exercises and said reducing their scale did not change what Pyongyang considered their hostile nature. She also questioned claims that there had been recent communication between Trump and Kim.
The developments show how difficult future negotiations could become. During Trump's earlier meetings with Kim in 2018 and 2019, the central issue was North Korea's nuclear programme and the possibility of denuclearisation. Those negotiations eventually collapsed because the two sides could not agree on how much of North Korea's nuclear programme should be dismantled and how much sanctions relief should be provided in return.
North Korea's position has changed since then. Its nuclear programme has continued to develop, and its government has increasingly presented nuclear weapons as a permanent part of national security. Pyongyang has also expanded its missile capabilities, including systems designed for shorter range attacks against targets in South Korea.
For Seoul, the growing nuclear capability of its neighbour presents a serious security challenge. South Korea continues to reject the idea of developing its own nuclear weapons and instead relies on the US nuclear umbrella for protection. Ahn said Seoul does not intend to officially recognise North Korea as a nuclear weapons state and does not support bringing US tactical nuclear weapons back to South Korea.
The growing uncertainty over the size of North Korea's arsenal could nevertheless fuel debate in South Korea about whether existing security arrangements are sufficient.
For the United States, the issue creates another difficult choice. Washington has traditionally demanded the complete denuclearisation of North Korea. But if Pyongyang now possesses dozens of nuclear weapons and continues producing more, negotiations based solely on complete disarmament may become increasingly difficult.
The immediate question is whether Trump and Kim can restart meaningful dialogue. A future meeting could focus not only on denuclearisation but also on limiting the growth of North Korea's arsenal, reducing military tensions and preventing further nuclear and missile development.
For now, the exact number of North Korean nuclear weapons remains unknown. Whether the real figure is closer to 60, 80 or 120, the broader message is clear. North Korea's nuclear capability has grown substantially, and any new diplomatic effort will have to deal with a country whose nuclear programme is more advanced and deeply established than it was during the first Trump Kim negotiations.