Singapore: Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains at exceptionally low levels, with four vessel crossings recorded on Tuesday in preliminary shipping data. The latest figures show that traffic has not recovered amid continuing attacks on vessels and security concerns across the region.
The four crossings were well below the recent 10 day average of 18 vessels. Seven crossings were recorded on the previous day. Two of Tuesday's vessels were entering the waterway and two were leaving it.
No very large crude oil carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers were recorded among the four vessels. The figures come from ship tracking data and may not capture every vessel because some ships are believed to have switched off their tracking systems while passing through the area.
The limited traffic shows that the Strait has not been completely closed. Some commercial vessels are still moving through it, including vessels carrying significant quantities of energy products.
One very large gas carrier, the Salute, left through the Iranian route carrying about 470,000 barrels of liquefied petroleum gas. The tanker Nautilus also left the area, carrying about 510,000 barrels of naphtha through a route that could not be identified through normal tracking data.
Two vessels entered the Strait on Tuesday. One was a short range tanker carrying petroleum products and the other was a dry bulk carrier. Both used the Iranian route.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy routes. Before the ongoing Iran conflict, it carried about one fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. The sharp decline in traffic has added to concerns about energy supplies, shipping costs and the wider impact on global trade.
The latest figures follow an increasingly severe decline in shipping activity. Five commodity vessels were recorded on Saturday and none were recorded on Sunday, compared with 31 vessels during the previous weekend.
The reduction has coincided with a series of attacks and other incidents involving commercial vessels in and around the Strait.
The International Maritime Organization said there were 80 confirmed maritime incidents in the Middle East and around the Strait of Hormuz as of September 15. Several vessels have been damaged in recent weeks, while seafarers have been killed or reported missing.
Among the latest incidents was damage to the tanker EL GAIA in the Strait of Hormuz on September 12. The International Maritime Organization said pollution from the incident remained under assessment and that two seafarers were missing.
The circumstances surrounding some attacks remain disputed. Iranian authorities have provided their own explanations for individual incidents, while US authorities have given different accounts. These competing claims have not all been independently established, making it important to distinguish confirmed damage to vessels from disputed explanations about how the attacks occurred.
The security situation is also affecting energy markets. Oil prices rose on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia suspended oil loadings at its Red Sea port of Yanbu following an attack that damaged its East West oil pipeline. The pipeline normally carries about four million barrels of oil a day.
Oil prices then fell on Wednesday after US crude inventories unexpectedly increased. In early trading, Brent crude was around $107.82 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate was around $104.86. Prices remained high as markets continued to assess risks to supplies from the Middle East.
Traffic through the Bab el Mandeb Strait was also being closely watched, although the latest figures showed a smaller change. Twenty two vessels crossed on Tuesday, compared with 24 the previous day.
The continuing reduction in Hormuz traffic is also creating a serious problem for seafarers. The International Maritime Organization said more than 20,000 seafarers, port workers and offshore crews are affected by the regional instability. The organisation has prepared an evacuation plan for about 6,000 seafarers, although the plan is currently paused.
Planned discussions between Gulf Arab states and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz have also been postponed, adding to uncertainty over efforts to restore normal commercial movement.
For now, the latest shipping data points to a waterway that remains open to limited commercial traffic but far from normal. The exact number of vessels moving through the Strait is difficult to establish because some vessels may be operating without visible tracking signals.
The key question for energy markets and international shipping is whether security conditions can improve enough to bring back regular tanker and gas carrier traffic. Until that happens, the Strait of Hormuz will remain a major source of uncertainty for global energy supplies and maritime trade.