Baghdad: The United States is completing the final stage of its military withdrawal from Iraq, with the remaining US forces expected to leave by September 30 under an agreement between Washington and Baghdad.
The withdrawal marks the end of the military mission of the US led international coalition in Iraq, more than two decades after the US invasion of the country. Iraqi security forces are expected to take primary responsibility for countering security threats as the coalition mission comes to an end.
The withdrawal is taking place under a plan agreed by the United States and Iraq in 2024. The agreement set out a phased end to the coalition's military mission against Islamic State in Iraq.
The September 30 deadline has been repeatedly confirmed by Iraqi officials. The final stages of the withdrawal are being completed as Iraq prepares for a new phase in its security relationship with the United States and other former coalition members.
The end of the coalition mission does not mean that US relations with Iraq are ending. The two countries are expected to continue security cooperation through bilateral arrangements as their relationship moves into a new phase.
The United States invaded Iraq in March 2003 and withdrew its combat forces in December 2011. American forces returned in 2014 at the request of the Iraqi government after Islamic State captured large areas of Iraq.
Islamic State lost its territorial control in Iraq in 2017. In 2021, the international coalition ended its combat mission and shifted towards supporting and advising Iraqi security forces.
Iraq has since been working to strengthen its own military capabilities as the coalition prepares to leave. Baghdad has been improving its air defence systems and increasing the ability of its security forces to operate without direct coalition military support.
However, questions remain about how quickly Iraq can replace capabilities previously provided by the coalition, particularly in intelligence, surveillance and air defence.
The security situation in the Kurdistan Region is one area of concern. US and coalition forces have maintained a presence in the region, including around Erbil, and Kurdish officials have raised concerns about the region's ability to respond to missile and drone attacks after the coalition withdrawal.
Islamic State also remains a security concern. Although the group no longer controls territory in Iraq, its sleeper cells continue to pose a threat and retain the ability to carry out attacks. Iraqi authorities will therefore continue counterterrorism operations after the coalition's military mission ends.
The withdrawal is also being closely watched because of Iran's influence in Iraq. Iranian officials and several Iran aligned Iraqi armed groups have welcomed the departure of US forces and described it as a victory.
The withdrawal could create greater room for Iran and its allies to increase their influence in Iraq, but the extent of any such change remains uncertain. Iran already has significant political and security links with groups in Iraq, while Baghdad continues to assert the authority of the Iraqi state.
The issue of armed groups remains particularly sensitive. The end of the US led coalition mission does not mean that all armed groups in Iraq will immediately surrender their weapons to the government.
Baghdad is continuing efforts to bring weapons under state control, but the timing of the process remains unclear and is separate from the September 30 deadline for the coalition withdrawal.
Iraq is also managing other foreign military relationships. On September 23, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on a gradual handover of Turkey's Bashiqa Zelikan military base near Mosul to the Iraqi government.
The agreement is part of a wider effort by Baghdad to strengthen state authority over security arrangements in the country.
The US withdrawal therefore marks an important change in Iraq's security structure, but it does not mean that all foreign security relationships will end at the same time. Iraq is expected to rely increasingly on its own forces while continuing bilateral cooperation with the United States and other countries.
As the deadline approaches, Iraq is entering a new security phase in which its own forces will take the lead. The immediate impact of the withdrawal on Iran's influence, Islamic State activity, Kurdish security and the future of armed groups remains unclear.