Washington: A meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before the end of this year appears increasingly unlikely, as diplomatic efforts have made little progress and Washington has reportedly received no response from Pyongyang to its outreach about arranging a meeting.
The possibility of a meeting had raised hopes of renewed dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang over North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and security tensions on the Korean Peninsula. However, the lack of concrete progress has weakened expectations that the two leaders will meet during the remaining months of 2026.
Trump has expressed interest in meeting Kim. The White House has said that the US president remains open to talks without preconditions. However, no meeting has been officially announced, and there is no confirmed date or agreement between the two sides.
The November summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Shenzhen, China, had been considered a possible opportunity for the two leaders to meet. The summit is scheduled for November 18 and 19, leaving limited time for arrangements if a meeting is to take place on the sidelines.
Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has estimated that the likelihood of a Trump Kim meeting at the APEC summit is below 10 per cent. This is an expert assessment rather than an official forecast. It applies specifically to a meeting at APEC and does not rule out other opportunities for the leaders to meet before the end of the year.
Earlier expectations had been more optimistic. In late September, South Korea's National Intelligence Service reportedly assessed that there was a 50 per cent chance of a meeting between Trump and Kim during the APEC summit. The latest assessment reflects growing uncertainty as the summit approaches without concrete progress towards an agreement.
South Korean officials have also expressed caution about the prospects of renewed diplomacy. Kang Kyung wha, South Korea's ambassador to Washington, said there had been no concrete progress towards arranging a meeting. US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel also indicated that the timing remained uncertain, while noting that an arrangement could potentially be announced at short notice.
Trump's own remarks have added to the uncertainty. On October 19, he said he got along well with Kim but was unsure whether anyone was seeking a meeting. His comments suggested that, despite his willingness to engage with the North Korean leader, the necessary diplomatic arrangements were not yet in place.
The two leaders have met three times. Their first meeting took place in Singapore in June 2018, becoming the first summit between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader. The meeting produced a joint statement committing both countries to work towards improved relations, peace and the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.
However, the agreement did not establish a detailed process for dismantling North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. Their second summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019, ended without an agreement because of differences over sanctions relief and North Korea's nuclear commitments.
Trump and Kim met again at the Korean Demilitarized Zone in June 2019, raising hopes that negotiations could resume. However, subsequent diplomatic efforts failed to produce a lasting agreement on the nuclear issue.
North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes remain major concerns for the United States and its regional allies. International sanctions targeting these programmes also remain in place. Any renewed negotiations would face difficult questions about nuclear disarmament, sanctions and security guarantees.
North Korean state media has indicated that Pyongyang could set tough conditions for a summit, potentially including sanctions relief. However, it remains unclear whether North Korea has formally communicated specific conditions for the proposed meeting.
China could potentially play a role in facilitating dialogue because of its relationship with North Korea. However, there is no confirmed agreement indicating that Beijing has arranged or secured a meeting between Trump and Kim.
Meanwhile, tensions between North and South Korea continue to complicate the regional security situation. On October 23, South Korea proposed military talks with North Korea to address border tensions, restore military communication channels and reduce the risk of accidental clashes.
The proposal followed landmine explosions near the border in September that injured three South Korean soldiers. South Korea attributed the explosions to North Korean mines, while Pyongyang denied responsibility and rejected Seoul's demands for an apology and the removal of remaining mines.
The proposed military talks are separate from the discussions about a possible Trump Kim summit. However, they highlight the wider security challenges facing the region and the continuing need for communication between the two Koreas.
For now, the prospects of a Trump Kim meeting remain uncertain. Although the US president has expressed interest in direct engagement, the reported absence of a response from North Korea and the lack of concrete diplomatic progress have reduced expectations of a summit before the end of 2026.
Any lasting breakthrough would depend on whether both sides could agree on practical steps towards addressing the nuclear dispute and wider security concerns.